Phillies vs Marlins Prediction - MLB Picks 8/1/23

Miami Marlins (57-50) vs Philadelphia Phillies (57-49)

Game Info: Tuesday, August 1, 2023 at 6:40 pm (loanDepot park)

Sandy Alcantara (4-9) (4.46) vs Ranger Suarez (2-5) (4.22)

Betting Odds: Miami Marlins -145 / Philadelphia Phillies +120 --- Over/Under: 7.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Philadelphia Phillies will play the Miami Marlins in Game 2 of their series on Tuesday night at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Philadelphia won the first game in this series by a score of 4-2 on Monday night and they currently have a very slim lead on the Marlins for second place in the NL East. 

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 57-49 this season and they have won four of their last six games. Prior to winning the first game in this series, Philadelphia lost two out of three games in Pittsburgh. The Phillies had multiple chances to get the series win against Pittsburgh, but their pitching staff allowed 13 runs in Games 2 and 3. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average this year. The Phillies offense has scored 474 runs with a .255 batting average and a .322 on base percentage. Nick Castellanos is batting .273 with 14 home runs and 60 RBI’s for the Phillies. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Ranger Suarez, who is 2-5 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 79.0 innings pitched this season.

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 57-50 this season and they have lost 11 of their last 15 games. Miami did get a much needed series win against the Tigers over the weekend, where they won two out of three games. The Marlins have not played very well over the last few weeks and they continue to slide down the NL Wild Card standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.10 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 438 runs with a .264 batting average and a .320 on base percentage this season. Jorge Soler is batting .243 with 25 home runs and 56 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, who is 4-9 with a 4.46 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 135.1 innings pitched this year. 

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The Marlins have lost each of their last six night games against National League opponents.
  • The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
  • The Marlins have won the first inning in each of their last three home games against NL East opponents.
  • The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against the Phillies.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last three games as home favourites against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts

  • The Phillies have won six of their last eight games as road underdogs.
  • The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against NL East opponents following a road win.
  • The Phillies have lost the first inning in each of their last three road games against NL East opponents.
  • The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five night games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last three games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Jazz Chisholm has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances.
  • Yuli Gurriel has scored at least one run in each of his last three appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jazz Chisholm has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances.
  • Jazz Chisholm has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Marlins as favourites.
  • Jazz Chisholm has recorded an RBI in four of his last five appearances with the Marlins as favourites.
  • Luis Arraez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.429) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • J.T. Realmuto has hit a home run in three of the Phillies' last six road games against NL East opponents.
  • Nick Castellanos has recorded an RBI in four of his last five appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
  • Ranger Suarez has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Alec Bohm has recorded two or more total bases in six of his last seven road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Alec Bohm has scored a run in six of his last seven road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Bryson Stott ranks 10th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.303) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Miami Marlins ranks 4th in the league for batting average this season (.264).
  • The Miami Marlins ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts this season (1006).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks 25th in the league for strikeouts against this season (978).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks 7th in the league for doubles this season (192).

Pick

The Marlins will look to bounce back in this game after dropping Game 1 on Monday night, while Philadelphia will look to increase their lead for second place in the NL East. Miami has been incredible at home this season and they really could use a win here. The Marlins are starting Sandy Alcantara, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The Phillies are starting Ranger Suarez, who has allowed 4, 4, 3, 3, and 5 earned runs in his last five starts. Alcantara has been getting better after a very slow start to the season and I like the Marlins to get the win here. 

David’s Pick Marlins ML

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