Tigers vs Marlins Prediction - MLB Picks 7/30/23

Miami Marlins (56-49) vs Detroit Tigers (47-58)

Game Info: Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 1:40 pm (loanDepot park)

Jesus Luzardo (8-5) (3.22) vs Tarik Skubal (1-1) (3.71)

Betting Odds: Miami Marlins -150 / Detroit Tigers +130 --- Over/Under: 7 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Detroit Tigers will play the Miami Marlins in Game 3 of their series on Sunday afternoon at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Miami won the first game in this series by a score of 6-5, while Detroit answered with a 5-0 win in Game 2 on Saturday. Miami could really use a series win here, as they have had some issues over the last month. 

Tigers Preview

The Detroit Tigers are 47-58 this season and they have lost four of their last five games. Prior to this series, Detroit lost all three games in their series with the Angels, where they were out scored by a total of 23-10. Detroit has had pretty solid pitching this season, but their offense ranks towards the bottom of baseball in most of the offensive metrics. The Detroit pitching staff has a 4.46 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .245 opponent batting average this year. The Tigers offense has scored 411 runs with a .231 batting average and a .299 on base percentage. Javier Baez is batting .223 with seven home runs and 47 RBI’s for the Tigers. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Tarik Skubal, who is 1-1 with a 3.71 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over 17.0 innings pitched this season.

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 56-49 this season and they have lost 10 of their last 13 games. Miami was able to split a two game series in Tampa Bay in their last series, but they have really struggled to gain momentum lately. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.09 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 428 runs with a .264 batting average and a .320 on base percentage this season. Jorge Soler is batting .240 with 24 home runs and 54 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Jesus Luzardo, who is 8-5 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 120.1 innings pitched this year. 

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The Marlins have won eight of their last nine home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Marlins have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last four day games.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four day games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Detroit Tigers Team Facts

  • The Tigers have lost each of their last seven Sunday day games against NL East opponents.
  • The Tigers have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
  • The Tigers have led after 3 innings in five of their last seven games as road underdogs.
  • The Tigers have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against National League opponents.
  • The Tigers have led after 7 innings in each of their last four day games against the Marlins.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Jesus Luzardo has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances at LoanDepot Park.
  • Luis Arraez has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Marlins' last seven games at LoanDepot Park against AL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit a home run in two of the Marlins' last three games against AL opponents.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Marlins' last six games against AL Central opponents at LoanDepot Park.
  • Luis Arraez has recorded two or more hits in each of the Marlins' last seven home games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Jorge Soler has scored at least one run in three of the Marlins' last four games against AL Central opponents.
  • Luis Arraez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.429) this season.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

  • Riley Greene has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
  • Spencer Torkelson has recorded at least one RBI in nine of his last 12 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Riley Greene has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Javier Baez has scored at least one run in each of the Tigers' last four games as road underdogs against NL opponents.
  • Riley Greene has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Miami Marlins ranks 4th in the league for batting average this season (.264).
  • The Miami Marlins ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts this season (989).
  • The Detroit Tigers ranks 28th in the league for RBI's this season (398).
  • The Detroit Tigers ranks 28th in the league for batting average this season (.231).

Pick

The Marlins couldn’t get anything going on Saturday and they were shutout by a Detroit team that is 11 games under .500. Miami will go for the series win here as they continue to fight for a Wild Card berth in the NL. The Marlins were in control of a Wild Card spot, but the last few weeks have really hurt their chances. Miami is starting Jesus Luzardo, who has allowed five earned runs in his last five starts (29.2 IP). Detroit is starting Tarik Skubal, who has made four starts this year. Skubal has allowed 0 runs in three of the starts, but got roughed up for seven runs in the other outing. I expect a lower scoring game here and I like the under. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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