Reds vs Dodgers Prediction - MLB Picks 7/30/23

Los Angeles Dodgers (58-44) vs Cincinnati Reds (57-48)

Game Info: Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 4:10 pm (Dodger Stadium)

Michael Grove (2-2) (6.19) vs Graham Ashcraft (5-7) (5.64)

Betting Odds: Los Angeles Dodgers -175 / Cincinnati Reds +135 --- Over/Under: 10 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers face off on Sunday in an MLB showdown at Dodger Stadium. The two teams have split the first two games of this series. 

Ashcraft Continues to Impress

The Reds sit with a 57-49 record overall but on Saturday the fofense wasn’t good enough. On the mound for the Reds is Graham Ashcraft and he started off his season slow, but he has been better as of late. Over his last five starts he has given up only seven runs total. He comes into this game with a 5-7 record and an ERA of 5.64, but don’t let that fool you, he has pitched a whole lot better as of late. The Reds are averaging 4.85 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.9 runs per game. The offense is ranked 9th while the pitching is ranked 23rd. In this game the defense is going to need to be lights out. 

Reds Betting Trends

  • The Reds have won each of their last six games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a road loss.
  • The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last seven games following a road loss.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last three games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
  • The Reds have led after 7 innings in each of their last four day games against NL West opponents.

Grove Playing with Fire

The Dodgers sit with a 59-44 record overall. On Saturday the offense only had two hits, but they finished with three runs. On the mound for the Dodgers will be Michael Grove and he has been playing with fire all season. On the season Grove sits with a 2-2 record and an ERA of 6.19. In his last start against the Blue Jays he gave up only two runs but he did give up eight hits in 4.2 innings. The Dodgers are averaging 5.64 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.69 runs per game. The offense is ranked 2nd while the pitching is ranked 19th. 

Dodgers Betting Trends

  • The Dodgers have won 15 of their last 16 home games against the Reds following a win.
  • The Dodgers have failed to cover the run line 13 of their last 14 games at Dodger Stadium against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Dodgers have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five Sunday games as favourites.
  • The Dodgers have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as home favourites.
  • The Dodgers have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five Sunday day games as favourites.

Reds and Dodgers Facts

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers ranks 2nd in the league for walks this season (437).
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers ranks 2nd in the league for runs scored this season (578).
  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 4th in the league for walks this season (373).
  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 5th in the league for triples this season (20).

Shane’s Free Pick

This is a great spot to the take the Reds. The Reds send Ashcraft to the mound and he has been better as of late. I don’t rust Grove, and he’s going to really struggle again in this game. The Reds offense is ranked 9th in baseball and they are going to have no issue running up the score against Ashcraft. This is going to a victory by the Reds to finish the series. Back the Reds on the money line. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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