Phillies vs Pirates Prediction - MLB Picks 7/30/23

Pittsburgh Pirates (46-58) vs Philadelphia Phillies (56-48)

Game Info: Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 1:35 pm (PNC Park)

Rich Hill (7-10) (4.82) vs Cristopher Sanchez (0-3) (2.98)

Betting Odds: Pittsburgh Pirates +125 / Philadelphia Phillies -145 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Philadelphia Phillies will play the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 3 of their series on Sunday afternoon at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Philadelphia won Game 1 in this series by a score of 2-1, while Pittsburgh answered with a 7-6 win in Game 2. The Phillies blew a 4-1 lead on Saturday and had plenty of chances to tie the game up, but couldn’t find a timely hit. 

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 56-48 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Prior to splitting the first two games in this series, Philadelphia won two out of three games at home against the Orioles. The Phillies are currently second in the NL East, but they trail the Braves by 11 games. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 4.02 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average this year. The Phillies offense has scored 466 runs with a .255 batting average and a .321 on base percentage. Kyle Schwarber is batting .185 with 27 home runs and 65 RBI’s for the Phillies. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Cristopher Sanchez, who is 0-3 with a 2.98 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP over 42.1 innings pitched this season.

Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 46-58 this year and they have alternated wins and losses over their last 10 games. Pittsburgh has played much better in their last 10 games than they did over the previous two months, where they really fell off in the NL Central. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.51 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .252 opponent batting average. The Pirates offense has scored 429 runs with a .236 batting average and a .312 on base percentage this season. Jack Suwinski is batting .229 with 21 home runs and 52 RBI’s for the Pirates. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Rich Hill, who is 7-10 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP over 114.0 innings pitched this year. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Team Facts

  • The Pirates have lost each of their last eight games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a win.
  • The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games following a win.
  • The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five day games at PNC Park against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Pirates' last six home games against National League opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts

  • The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as road favourites against National League opponents following a loss.
  • The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight road games.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last five games as favourites.
  • The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as favourites.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

  • Rich Hill has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against NL East opponents.
  • Andrew McCutchen has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
  • Ji-Man Choi has hit a home run in four of his last nine appearances after playing the previous day.
  • Ji-Man Choi has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against the Phillies.
  • Ji-Man Choi has recorded at least one hit in each of his six previous appearances against the Phillies.
  • Bryan Reynolds has scored a run in four of the Pirates' last five games against the Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • Kyle Schwarber has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Phillies' last four day games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies' last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Phillies' last eight games against NL opponents.
  • Bryce Harper has recorded a hit in each of his last six appearances against the Pirates after playing the previous day.
  • Bryce Harper has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies' last five day games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Bryson Stott ranks 9th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.306) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks 26th in the league for runs scored this season (429).
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks T25th in the league for home runs this season (98).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks T5th in the league for walks allowed this season (297).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies are one of only 5 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Pick

The Phillies come into this game as the favorite and they are the much better team in this matchup. Philadelphia is starting Cristopher Sanchez, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Pittsburgh is starting Rich Hill, who has allowed 2, 4, 3, 5, and 3 earned runs in his last six outings. I expect the Phillies to have a big day against Hill, who allows way too many baserunners. Take the Phillies here. 

David’s Pick Phillies ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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