Brewers vs Braves Prediction - MLB Picks 7/30/23

Atlanta Braves (66-36) vs Milwaukee Brewers (57-48)

Game Info: Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 1:35 pm (Truist Park)

AJ Smith-Shawver (1-0) (4.32) vs Colin Rea (5-4) (4.53)

Betting Odds: Atlanta Braves / Milwaukee Brewers --- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Milwaukee Brewers will play the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of their series on Sunday afternoon at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. Atlanta has won the first two games in this series and they have exploded for a total of 21 runs in those two wins. Milwaukee has been able to score 12 runs of their own, but their pitching staff has not figured out the Braves bats in this series. 

Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 57-48 this season and they have lost three of their last four games. Prior to this series, Milwaukee won two out of three games against the Reds. The Brewers have played well over the last two months, but they are 1-4 against the Braves in the last week. The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average this year. The Brewers offense has scored 435 runs with a .233 batting average and a .312 on base percentage. Christian Yelich is batting .286 with 15 home runs and 57 RBI’s for the Brewers. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Colin Rea, who is 5-4 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 91.1 innings pitched this year. 

Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 66-36 this season and they have won five of their last eight games. Prior to winning the first two games in this series, Atlanta lost both games in their mini series in Boston. The Braves are one of the best teams in all of baseball and their lineup has flexed on Milwaukee to the tune of 21 runs in the first two games. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Braves offense has scored 575 runs with a .270 batting average and a .339 on base percentage this year. Ronald Acuna is batting .333 with 24 home runs and 61 RBI’s for the Braves. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is AJ Smith-Shawver, who is 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 16.2 innings pitched this season.

Atlanta Braves Team Facts

  • The Braves have won each of their last nine games against National League opponents following a home win.
  • The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as favourites against National League opponents following a home win.
  • The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three Sunday games as home favourites.
  • The Braves have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four day games.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Braves' last three day games.

Milwaukee Brewers Team Facts

  • The Brewers have won each of their last six Sunday games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
  • The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last eight Sunday road games.
  • The Brewers have led after 7 innings in each of their last four day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Brewers' last four day games against National League opponents.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last six appearances against the Brewers at Truist Park.
  • Austin Riley has hit at least one home run in four of the Braves' last five home games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last six appearances against the Brewers at Truist Park.
  • Michael Harris has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves' last 11 games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored at least one run in each of his 11 previous home appearances against the Brewers.
  • Matt Olson ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (33) this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

  • Christian Yelich has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Brewers' last six day games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • William Contreras has recorded two or more hits in each of the Brewers' last three games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
  • Carlos Santana has scored at least one run in five of his last six road appearances against NL opponents.
  • Brice Turang has hit a home run in two of the Brewers' last three day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • William Contreras has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six road appearances after playing the previous day.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Atlanta Braves ranks 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.270).
  • The Atlanta Braves ranks 2nd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.339).
  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 27th in the league for doubles this season (152).
  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 27th in the league for batting average this season (.233).

Pick

Atlanta is looking for the series sweep here as they continue to dominate the NL East, while Milwaukee is trying to salvage a game in the series, as they are in a battle with the Reds in the NL Central. The Braves have a great lineup and it is going to take a great effort from Colin Rea to shut them down. Rea has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Braves are starting AJ Smith-Shawver, who allowed eight earned runs in his last two starts back in June. I am going to take the Brewers in this game, but I don’t love it. Colin Rea has been pretty solid for Milwaukee, while Smith-Shawver is still an unknown. Take the Brewers here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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