Nationals vs Mets Prediction - MLB Picks 7/29/23

New York Mets (49-54) vs Washington Nationals (43-61)

Game Info: Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 7:10 pm (Citi Field)

Carlos Carrasco (3-4) (5.82) vs Patrick Corbin (6-11) (5.09)

Betting Odds: New York Mets -222 / Washington Nationals +165 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Washington Nationals and the New York Mets will meet in Queens for game three of their divisional series this Saturday from Citi Field on SNY. New York took game two behind a strong two-way effort, 5-1.

Nationals Preview & Projected Starter

Washington moved to 43-61 after losing to New York. The Nats were bullied and silenced at the plate again last night, and they’ll seek different results here in game three. Dave Martinez’ team rests in last place of the NL East, with postseason play seemingly out of reach. The Washington offense is scoring 3.48 runs per game, while batting .262, with a .319 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 4.96 ERA, with a 1.50 WHIP.

Patrick Corbin (6-11, 5.01 ERA, 85 Ks) will get the ball for Washington. The veteran lefty has another one of those starts last time out against Colorado, allowing six runs through 6.1 innings pitched en route to his eleventh loss of the season. Corbin built some steam through April and May, but he’s back in vulnerable form, and this one could get rough for him. Random gems against Seattle and Texas show Corbin can still turn it on, it’s just more likely he allows production versus him preventing it at this point.

Nats Player Props

• Lane Thomas is hitless thru two contests in Queens, but he still leads the Nats in hits (117), with splits of .287/16/54.

• Joey Meneses has collected a hit in eight of the last nine games, and he’s batting .280, with 53 RBI.

• Jeimer Canderlario, a NYC native, has produced a run in three of the previous five games, and he’s posting a line of .254/16/52.

• Luis Garcia recorded three hits and supplied the lone run via homer in the game two loss, and he’s batting .266, with 42 RBI for the season.

Mets Preview & Projected Starter

New York moved to 49-54 after defeating Washington. The Mets got another two-homer outing from Pete Alonso, and a strong outing from Max Scherzer against his former squad to climb closer to .500, and they’ll look to take another division game Saturday. Buck Showalter’s ballclub sits four in the NL East, and about 6.5 games back of the final wildcard spot. The New York offense is scoring 3.98 runs per game, while batting .238, with a .318 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 4.39 ERA, with a 1.35 WHIP.

Carlos Carrasco (3-4, 5.82 ERA, 50 Ks) will get the call for New York. The fourteen-year pitcher was exploited at Fenway last time out, allowing ten hits and five runs in just 2.1 innings pitched en route to his fourth loss of the season. It looks like Carrasco has reverted back to his ways after tossing a gem in Arizona prior to the break, but he comes into a manageable spot here at home to keep things going for the Mets.

Mets Player Props

• Pete Alonso powered the game two victory with a pair of homers and five runs produced, and he’s the Mets leader in home runs (30) and RBI (73).

• Francisco Lindor has recorded a hit in four of the previous six games, and he’s second on the team with 19 homers and 62 RBI.

• Jeff McNeil collected three hits in Friday’s win, and he’s batting .255 for the season.

• Brandon Nimmo also reached base last night and he leads NYM in batting (.258) and hits (101), with 15 HR and 47 RBI.

Corey’s Free Pick

What we have here is a divisional matchup that provides multiple angles to attack. Patrick Corbin and Carlos Carrasco facing off sounds like an offensive baseball fan's dream, and it should be for the opposing batters as well. Corbin has grown into bettors favorite pitcher to target, while Carrasco is clearly a shell of himself, and a liability in the Mets rotation. The Mets have all of the momentum after two good days of ball, and I just don’t think Corbin is the guy to swing things in DC’s favor. The Corbin/Carrasco matchup also opens the door for props and the Over itself, making this a potential enticing game all-around. The Mets have the steam, so I recommend backing them here, but give the total a firm look as well.