Yankees vs Orioles Prediction - MLB Picks 7/28/23

Baltimore Orioles (62-40) vs New York Yankees (54-48)

Game Info: Friday, July 28, 2023 at 7:05 pm (Oriole Park at Camden Yards)

Grayson Rodriguez (2-2) (6.91) vs Gerrit Cole (9-2) (2.78)

Betting Odds: Baltimore Orioles +105 / New York Yankees -125 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New York Yankees will play the Baltimore Orioles in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. New York has played better in their last five games, but they need to find a way to be more consistent at the plate. Baltimore comes into this series leading the AL East and they have played great baseball over the last month. 

Yankees Preview

The New York Yankees are 54-48 this season and they have won four of their last five games. The Yankees are coming off of a series split with the Mets, where they won one game and lost one game. Prior to that series, New York swept the Royals at home and out scored them by a total of 18-11. The New York pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average this year. The Yankees offense has scored 446 runs with a .230 batting average and a .302 on base percentage. Gleyber Torres is batting .264 with 16 home runs and 43 RBI’s for the Yankees. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Gerrit Cole, who is 9-2 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 129.1 innings pitched this season.

Orioles Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 62-40 this season and they have won five of their last eight games. Baltimore is coming off of a series loss to the Phillies, where they lost two out of three games. The Orioles had a chance to win Games 2 and 3 against Philadelphia, but their pitching staff was unable to hold onto either lead. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .250 opponent batting average. The Orioles offense has scored 498 runs with a .250 batting average and a .319 on base percentage this season. Gunnar Henderson is batting .241 with 16 home runs and 43 RBI’s for the Orioles. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Grayson Rodriguez, who is 2-2 with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP over 56.0 innings pitched this year. 

Baltimore Orioles Team Facts

  • The Orioles have won five of their last six games as underdogs against the Yankees following a road loss.
  • The Orioles have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against the Yankees following a loss.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Orioles' last four games as home underdogs against American League opponents.
  • The Orioles have led after 5 innings in four of their last six games as underdogs against American League opponents.
  • The Orioles have led after 3 innings in six of their last nine games as underdogs.

New York Yankees Team Facts

  • The Yankees have lost eight of their last nine games as favourites against AL East opponents following a home win.
  • The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Friday night games as favourites against American League opponents.
  • The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as road favourites against American League opponents.
  • The Yankees have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games as road favourites.
  • The Yankees have trailed after 7 innings in four of their last six games as road favourites against American League opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

  • Adley Rutschman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
  • Adley Rutschman has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last four home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Anthony Santander has scored a run in seven of the Orioles' last eight games as home underdogs against AL opponents.
  • Anthony Santander has hit a home run in three of the Orioles' last six home games against AL opponents.
  • Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five home appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

  • Gerrit Cole has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances with the Yankees as favourites.
  • Gleyber Torres has hit a home run in two of the Yankees' last three games as favourites against AL East opponents.
  • Gleyber Torres has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Yankees' last five games as favourites against AL opponents.
  • Billy McKinney has recorded a hit in seven of his last eight appearances against AL East opponents.
  • DJ LeMahieu has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Yankees' last three games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Billy McKinney has scored at least one run in each of his last four appearances with the Yankees as favourites.
  • Gerrit Cole ranks T7th in the league for total Strikeouts (144) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Baltimore Orioles ranks 9th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.420).
  • The Baltimore Orioles ranks 22nd in the league for hits allowed this season (874).
  • The New York Yankees ranks 29th in the league for hits this season (769).
  • The New York Yankees ranks 29th in the league for batting average this season (.230).

Pick

The Yankees come into this series six games above the .500 mark, but they are last in the highly competitive AL East. Baltimore is leading the AL East and they have an eight game lead over last place New York. Baltimore is starting Grayson Rodriguez, who has allowed 2, 4, 8, 2, and 8 earned runs in his last five starts. New York is starting Gerrit Cole, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. Cole hasn’t played the best competition in his last two starts, but has looked great in those two outings. Give me the Yankees on the road here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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