Tigers vs Marlins Prediction - MLB Picks 7/28/23

Miami Marlins (55-48) vs Detroit Tigers (46-57)

Game Info: Friday, July 28, 2023 at 6:40 pm (loanDepot park)

Braxton Garrett (5-3) (4.32) vs Reese Olson (1-4) (4.53)

Betting Odds: Miami Marlins -150 / Detroit Tigers +125 --- Over/Under: 8 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Detroit Tigers will play the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Detroit has shown some positive signs this season, but they are fading in the AL Central race. Miami has won two of their last three games, but they have really struggled over the last few weeks and they are slipping down the standings in the NL Wild Card race. 

Tigers Preview

The Detroit Tigers are 46-57 this season and they have lost five of their last seven games. Detroit is coming off of a series loss to the Angels, where they were swept in three games. The Tigers played a double header with Los Angeles on Thursday, where they were out scored by a total of 17-4 in the two games. The Detroit pitching staff has a 4.49 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average this season. The Tigers offense has scored 401 runs with a .231 batting average and a .298 on base percentage. Javier Baez is batting .222 with seven home runs and 47 RBI’s for the Tigers. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Reese Olson, who is 1-4 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 43.2 innings pitched this year. 

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 55-48 this season and they have lost nine of their last eleven games. Miami is coming off of a series split with Tampa Bay, where they won one game and lost one game. Prior to that series, Miami lost two out of three to Colorado and got swept by the Cardinals and Orioles. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.08 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 422 runs with a .263 batting average and a .320 on base percentage this year. Luis Arraez is batting .376 with three home runs and 51 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Braxton Garrett, who is 5-3 with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 100.0 innings pitched this season.

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The Marlins have won each of their last seven games at LoanDepot Park against American League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Marlins have covered the run line each of their last seven home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Marlins have led after 7 innings in each of their last four night games at LoanDepot Park against AL Central opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last five night games against American League opponents.
  • The Marlins have led after 5 innings in each of their last five home games against AL Central opponents.

Detroit Tigers Team Facts

  • The Tigers have won four of their last five games as road underdogs.
  • The Tigers have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against NL East opponents.
  • The Tigers have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as road underdogs.
  • The Tigers have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games.
  • The Tigers have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five road games against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in each of the Marlins' last two home games against AL Central opponents.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Marlins' last four games against AL Central opponents at LoanDepot Park.
  • Braxton Garrett has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances after not playing the previous day.
  • Luis Arraez has scored at least one run in each of the Marlins' last five games at LoanDepot Park against AL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Jon Berti has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight appearances.
  • Luis Arraez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.425) this season.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

  • Andy Ibanez has hit a home run in each of the Tigers' last two night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Spencer Torkelson has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Tigers' last five games.
  • Spencer Torkelson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Tigers' last seven night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Andy Ibanez has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Tigers' last five games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Spencer Torkelson has scored at least one run in each of his last five road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Miami Marlins ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts this season (971).
  • The Miami Marlins are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
  • The Detroit Tigers ranks 28th in the league for batting average this season (.231).
  • The Detroit Tigers ranks 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.298).

Pick

The Marlins come into this matchup desperately looking for a series win, as they are in a very tight race for a NL Wild Card spot. Detroit played well in their first couple of series after the All-Star break, but they were just swept by the Angels at home. Detroit is starting Reese Olson, who has allowed eight earned runs over his last 12.1 innings of work. Miami is starting Braxton Garrett, who has allowed 10 earned runs over his last two starts (7.2 IP). Garrett has been sharp for Miami for most of the season, but has really struggled in his last two starts. On the flip side, Reese Olson has bounced between the rotation and bullpen, but just allowed five earned runs to San Diego last time out. These two offenses are towards the bottom of the MLB and even though the pitchers have had some issues recently, I am still going with the under here. 

David’s Pick Under 8

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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