Rangers vs Padres Prediction - MLB Picks 7/28/23

San Diego Padres (49-54) vs Texas Rangers (60-43)

Game Info: Friday, July 28, 2023 at 9:40 pm (Petco Park)

Joe Musgrove (9-3) (3.25) vs Dane Dunning (8-3) (3.18)

Betting Odds: San Diego Padres -200 / Texas Rangers +155 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The San Diego Padres will host the Texas Rangers for game one of their interleague series this Friday from Petco Park.

Rangers Betting Preview

Texas moved to 60-43 after dropping two of three to Houston. The Rangers avoided the Lone Star sweep by taking it to the Astros in game three, and they’ll look to build on that here. The Texas offense is scoring 4.88 runs per game, while batting .272, with a .341 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 3.77 ERA, with a 1.20 WHIP. Marcus Semien homered in the game three win, and after recording multiple hits in all three matchups with Houston, and he leads the team in hits (120) and runs (83), with splits of .280/15/63. Nathaniel Lowe matched his energy with a homer and three runs brought in during the series finale, and he’s posting a line of .286/12/57. Adolis Garcia broke a cold streak by going yard as well in the G3 win, and he leads the Rangers in home runs (25) and RBI (84). 

Dane Dunning (8-3, 3.18 ERA, 64 Ks) will get the ball for Texas. The fourth-year pitcher got roughed up by the Dodgers at home last week, allowing a season-worse five runs in just three innings en route to his third loss of the season. Dunning’s matchup with LAD was an outlier, as he’s improved mightily this season in Arlington. Dunning had allowed two runs or less in five of his six starts prior to the loss, and he’ll attempt to get back on track here.

Texas Rangers Team Facts

  • The underdogs have won three of the Rangers' last four games.
  • The Rangers have covered the run line each of their last seven games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rangers' last four games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
  • The Rangers have led after 7 innings in seven of their last nine games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
  • The Rangers have led after 5 innings in each of their last 12 games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.

Padres Betting Preview

San Diego moved to 49-54 after dropping two of three to Pittsburgh. The underwhelming play continues for the Padres, and they may face an uphill battle this weekend if their big three doesn’t come to play. San Diego offense is scoring 4.31 runs per game, while batting .228, with a .317 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 3.76 ERA, with a 1.23 WHIP. Juan Soto homered in the game two win over Pittsburgh, and hel leads the Pads in home runs (20) and RBI (62). Manny Machado has recorded a hit in seven of the previous ten games, and he’s posting splits of .259/20/59. Fernando Tatis also leads the Pads in batting (.284), with 17 home runs and 50 RBI. Xander Bogaerts has collected a hit in nine of the last ten games, and leads SD with 97.

Joe Musgrove (9-3, 3.25 ERA, 92 Ks) is set to start for San Diego. The eighth-year pitcher had his three-game win streak snapped in Detroit last week, after allowing three runs in six innings to the Tigers. The result is more of a lack of run support than anything, as Musgrove managed to toss his eighth straight quality start. Musgrove has been very consistent since the start of June, and he’ll look to keep rolling against Texas here. 

San Diego Padres Team Facts

  • The Padres have won each of their last eight games against the Rangers.
  • The Padres have covered the run line in 12 of their last 13 night games against AL West opponents following a loss.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last three games between the Rangers and Padres.
  • The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against the Rangers at Petco Park.
  • The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as favourites.

Texas vs San Diego Trends

Texas is 60-41 ATS this year, with a 52-40-8 over/under record. San Diego is 51-50 against the spread this season, with a 48-50-2 O/U record. 

Corey’s Free Pick

Texas’ explosion at the plate in game three was a beautiful display and a sign that even without Corey Seager, they’re going to hold their own with the best. We’ll that logic’s about to be put to the test this week, as the Pads need wins to stay in it right now, and with Joe Musgrove going for game one, it’s hard to overlook his recent form. Dane Dunning’s been a stud himself, but it’s becoming make-or-break for San Diego, and I like them taking game one of this interleague series.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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