Phillies vs Pirates Prediction - MLB Picks 7/28/23

Pittsburgh Pirates (45-57) vs Philadelphia Phillies (55-47)

Game Info: Friday, July 28, 2023 at 7:05 pm (PNC Park)

Mitch Keller (9-6) (4.01) vs Zack Wheeler (7-5) (3.88)

Betting Odds: Pittsburgh Pirates +130 / Philadelphia Phillies -160 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: MLB.tv Stream the MLB Game of the Day all season on ESPN+. Sign up now! Advertisement

The Philadelphia Phillies will play the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Philadelphia is coming off of a nice series win at home against Baltimore, while Pittsburgh has not found much success over the last couple of months. 

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 55-47 this season and they have won three out of their last four games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series win against Baltimore, where they won two out of three games. The Phillies needed that series win against the Orioles, as they lost the two previous series to Cleveland and Milwaukee. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 4.04 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average this season. The Phillies offense has scored 458 runs with a .256 batting average and a .319 on base percentage. Nick Castellanos is batting .280 with 14 home runs and 60 RBI’s for the Phillies. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Zack Wheeler, who is 7-5 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 118.1 innings pitched this year. 

Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 45-57 this season and they have alternated wins and losses over their last seven games. Pittsburgh is coming off of a series win against the Padres, where they won two out of three games on the road. Prior to the San Diego series, Pittsburgh lost series against the Angels, Guardians, Giants, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Brewers. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.52 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .252 opponent batting average. The Pirates offense has scored 421 runs with a .236 batting average and a .312 on base percentage this year. Jack Suwinski is batting .228 with 21 home runs and 52 RBI’s for the Pirates. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller, who is 9-6 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 128.0 innings pitched this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Team Facts

  • The Pirates have lost 10 of their last 11 home games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs following a win.
  • The Pirates have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last six Friday night games.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last four games between the Phillies and Pirates.
  • The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games at PNC Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts

  • The Phillies have won 14 of their last 15 night games against NL Central opponents following a win.
  • The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents following a win.
  • The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last four road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Phillies have led after 7 innings in each of their last five games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

  • Mitch Keller has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five home appearances against NL opponents.
  • Ji-Man Choi has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances.
  • Ji-Man Choi has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last three appearances against the Phillies.
  • Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one hit in eight of his last nine appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one total base in eight of his last nine appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Andrew McCutchen has scored at least one run in each of his last six Friday night appearances against NL teams that held a winning record.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • Alec Bohm has recorded an RBI in each of his last four appearances after not playing the previous day.
  • Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against the Pirates.
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies' last four games as favourites against NL opponents.
  • Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies' last seven games as favourites against NL opponents.
  • Trea Turner has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight appearances against the Pirates.
  • Kyle Schwarber has scored at least one run in eight of the Phillies' last nine road games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Bryson Stott ranks 9th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.300) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks T26th in the league for RBI's this season (401).
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks 26th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.385).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks T4th in the league for walks allowed this season (292).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies ranks T7th in the league for home runs allowed this season (112).

Pick

The Phillies come into this series with plenty of confidence after knocking off the Orioles in their last series, while Pittsburgh was able to get their first series win in a while. The Phillies are right in the NL Wild Card chase and they are 27-27 on the road this year. Philadelphia is starting Zack Wheeler, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. Pittsburgh is starting Mitch Keller, who has allowed 14 earned runs over his last two starts (11 IP). Despite winning their last series, I haven’t liked what I have seen from Pittsburgh recently. I like the Phillies -1.5 in this game. 

David’s Pick Phillies -1.5

Get Premium Picks Start Winning Now »
The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

MLB Best Bets for Today Picks & Predictions Wednesday 6/19/24 | 7 Picks in 5 Minutes

18+ Has gambling become a problem for you? Call the National Problem Gambling Hotline.
1-800-522-4700 | ncpgambling.org

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.

Dismiss