Brewers vs Braves Prediction - MLB Picks 7/28/23

Atlanta Braves (64-36) vs Milwaukee Brewers (57-46)

Game Info: Friday, July 28, 2023 at 7:20 pm (Truist Park)

Yonny Chirinos (4-4) (4.02) vs Adrian Houser (3-2) (3.86)

Betting Odds: Atlanta Braves -200 / Milwaukee Brewers +155 --- Over/Under: 10 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves face off on Friday in an MLB showdown at Truist Park. 

Brewers Try to Stay Hot

The Brewers sit with a 57-46 record overall and they were able to win two of three against the Cincinnati Reds. On Wednesday it was a lights out performance by the pitching that led to the success. Freddy Peralta had one of his best starts of the season going six innings giving up zero runs and striking out 13.  If other pitchers can start doing the same, this Brewers team could be a real problem come playoff time. The Brewers are averaging 4.11 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.14 runs per game. The pitching is ranked 5th this season, and it’s what they have to lean on with the offense not being great. The Brewers have tried to improve the offense by bringing in Carlos Santanta from the Pittsburgh Pirates. On the mound for the Brewers is Adrian Houser who sits with a 3-2 record and an ERA of 3.86. 

Brewers Betting Trends

  • The Brewers have won seven of their last eight road games.
  • The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
  • The Brewers have led after 7 innings in five of their last seven games as road underdogs.
  • The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against National League opponents.

Are the Braves showing some weakness? 

The Braves come into this game with a 64-36 record overall but they have lost two straights games against the Boston Red Sox. In the two games the offense only managed four runs, and for such a talented offense, that isn’t good enough. The Braves are averaging 5.5 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.14 runs per game. The offense is ranked 3rd while the pitching is ranked 7th. Ronald Acuna Jr gets all the headlines but the best player on the offense has been Ozzie Albies. On the season Albies has hit 24 home runs and driven in 72 RBIs. On the mound for the Braves is Yonny Chirinos who sits with a 4-4 record and an ERA of 4.02. 

Braves Betting Trends

  • The Braves have won each of their last 10 games as home favourites against NL Central opponents following a loss.
  • The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Brewers following a loss.
  • The Braves have trailed after 7 innings in five of their last seven games as favourites.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Braves' last eight Friday night games.
  • The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as home favourites.

Brewers and Braves Facts

  • The Atlanta Braves ranks 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.266).
  • The Atlanta Braves ranks 2nd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.336).
  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 4th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.233).
  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 27th in the league for doubles this season (148).

Shane’s Free Pick

The Braves offense has struggled in the last couple of games and it’s not going to get any easier going against Adrian Houser. Carlos Santana is also going to be a welcome addition and it wouldn’t be shocking for him to get out to a fast start with his new team. The Brewers offense hasn’t been exactly elite this season, but they are going to give Houser enough run support here to secure the victory. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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