Nationals vs Mets Prediction - MLB Picks 7/27/23

New York Mets (47-53) vs Washington Nationals (43-59)

Game Info: Thursday, July 27, 2023 at 7:10 pm (Citi Field)

Kodai Senga (7-5) (3.27) vs Josiah Gray (7-8) (3.45)

Betting Odds: New York Mets -250 / Washington Nationals +190 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Washington Nationals will head up to Queens to start a divisional series with the New York Mets this Thursday from Citi Field on the MLB Network.

Nationals Betting Preview

Washington moved to 43-59 after taking two of three from Colorado. The Nats capitalized on their home stand by winning five of their last six games, and they’ll look to carry that momentum into division play. The Washington offense is scoring 3.48 runs per game, while batting .262, with a .319 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 4.96 ERA, with a 1.50 WHIP. Lane Thomas has recorded a hit in five of the last six games, and he leads the Nats in hits (117), with splits of .293/16/54. Joey Meneses produced three runs in the game two win over the Rockies, and he’s batting .280, with 53 RBI. Jeimer Canderlario plated runs in all three games against Colorado, and he’s posting a line of .256/16/51.

Josiah Gray (7-8, 3.45 ERA, 98 Ks) will take the hill for Washington. The third-year pitcher redeemed a rough start in St. Louis by handling San Francisco well at home, holding them to one run over seven innings of work to earn his seventh win of the year. It was good to see Gray bounce back after returning from his first All-Star appearance a bit rusty, and he’ll look to replicate his previous outing at Queens here. Gray, a Bronx native, returned to his home state back in late April, and struck out a season-high nine batters over six innings of scoreless ball en route to a Nats win, and it  should provide optimism heading into game one.  

Mets Betting Preview

New York moved to 47-54 after falling to the Yankees. The Mets couldn’t recreate their magic in the Bronx last night, and they’ll seek better results in Queens this weekend. The New York offense is scoring 3.98 runs per game, while batting .238, with a .318 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 4.39 ERA, with a 1.35 WHIP. Pete Alonso went gutless after powering a game one victory with two homers, but remains the Mets leader in home runs (28) and RBI (68). Francisco Lindor had three hits in the win over the Yankees, and he’s second on the team with 19 homers and 62 RBI. Brandon Nimmo plated the lone run in the game two loss, and he leads the team in batting (.262) and hits (100), with 15 HR and 46 RBI. 

Kodai Senga (7-5, 3.53 ERA, 125 Ks) will take the mound for New York. The rookie right-hander had a short outing after finding trouble at Fenway last week, allowing three runs in 3.1 innings to Boston, but he avoided the losing decision. Senga’s been much better than that since the start of the summer, but it does sum up how inconsistent he’s been this season. Senga has a notable trend of being really good then very bad going, and this home matchup happens to fall in his usual redemption spot, so he’s possibly due a bounce back here versus Washington.

New York Mets Team Facts

  • The Mets have won each of their last nine Thursday night games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games after playing the previous day.
  • The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last five home games against National League opponents.
  • The Mets have led after 7 innings in each of their last eight Thursday games against the Nationals.

Washington Nationals Team Facts

  • The Nationals have lost each of their last 18 Thursday games against NL East opponents.
  • The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last 10 night games against NL East opponents.
  • The Nationals have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs against the Mets.
  • The Nationals have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Nationals have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Corey’s Free Pick

Two inconsistent pitchers will collide when Josiah Gray and Kodai Senga face off Thursday, and I feel like the latter gets things going here at home. Senga’s stretch of on and off performances is alarming, but he’s on the favorable side of that trend here, and he’ll also be out to avenge his first MLB loss back in April to the Nats at Citi Field. Gray’s hometown aspect may make things interesting, but let’s trust a bounce back effort from New York, and back them here in game one. 

Corey’s Pick Mets -1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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