Reds vs Brewers Prediction - MLB Picks 7/26/23

Milwaukee Brewers (56-45) vs Cincinnati Reds (55-47)

Game Info: Wednesday, July 26, 2023 at 2:10 pm (American Family Field)

Freddy Peralta (6-8) (4.72) vs Ben Lively (4-5) (3.88)

Betting Odds: Milwaukee Brewers -141 / Cincinnati Reds +110 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds face off on Wednesday in an MLB showdown at American Family Field. The two teams have split the first two games of this series. 

Ben Lively Lack of Run Support

The Reds sit with a 56-47 record overall and they got good pitching on Tuesday on the way to the victory. On the mound for the Reds will be Ben Lively and he sits with a 4-5 record and an ERA of 3.38. In his last start, he went 4.2 innings giving up four hits and three runs. The Brewers have lost of the last three games started by Lively, and the one game they won, was the game he pitched the worst in. Three starts ago he went 5.2 innings and gave up only one run to the Brewers but they still lost 1-0. Each of the losses have come to the Brewers. The Reds are averaging 4.89 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.93 runs per game. Not many have talked about how good Jake Fraley has been a key part this season hitting 14 home runs and driving in 59 RBIs. 

Reds Betting Trends

  • The Reds have won 12 of their last 15 games as underdogs following a road win.
  • The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last seven day games following a road win.
  • The Reds have led after 7 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs.

Brewers Offense Continues to Struggle

The Brewers sit with a 56-46 record overall and the offense got some runs late on Tuesday, but it wasn’t enough as they lost by a run. All season the Brewers offense has been an issue and over the weekend against the Atlanta Braves the offense only managed ten runs. The Brewers offense this season is averaging only 4.13 runs per game which is 26th in baseball. Christian Yellich has really been one of the only bright spots hitting 14 home runs and driving in 55 RBIs. Left fielder Garrett Mitchell is out for the season, and that is a big loss for this offense.  The offense though has been good giving up only 4.18 runs per game. Freddy Peralta gets the start for the Brewers and he sits with a 6-8 record and an ERA of 4.72. Two starts ago against this same Reds team he went six innings and gave up only one hit and zero runs. 

Brewers Betting Trends

  • The Brewers have won each of their last eight games as home favourites against NL Central opponents following a home loss.
  • The road team has covered the run line in nine of the Brewers' last 10 games.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last three day games between the Reds and Brewers at American Family Field.

Brewers vs Reds Matchup Facts

  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 4th in the league for walks this season (362).
  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 4th in the league for hits allowed this season (796).
  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks 28th in the league for walks allowed this season (390).
  • The Cincinnati Reds ranks T5th in the league for triples this season (19).

Shane’s Free Pick

The Reds offense overall has been strong, but for some reason, they have struggled to score against the Brewers when Lively is on the mound. In the last two starts by Lively against the Brewers, the Reds have scored only four runs total. Lively pitched well in both of those starts though, and that is going to continue here. Peralta gave up zero runs in his last start against the Reds, and he’s going to do much of the same here. This is going to be an old-fashioned pitchers duel, with both offenses not stringing together many hits. Back the under to cash here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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