Marlins vs Rays Prediction - MLB Picks 7/26/23

Tampa Bay Rays (62-42) vs Miami Marlins (54-48)

Game Info: Wednesday, July 26, 2023 at 12:10 pm (Tropicana Field)

Zach Eflin (11-5) (3.36) vs Sandy Alcantara (3-9) (4.70)

Betting Odds: Tampa Bay Rays -160 / Miami Marlins +130 --- Over/Under: 7.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Marlins will play the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 2 of their series on Wednesday afternoon at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Tampa Bay won the first game in this series by a score of 4-1, but both teams entered this series really struggling.

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 54-48 this season and they have lost nine of their last ten games. Prior to losing the first game in this series, Miami lost two out of three games at home against Colorado. The Marlins were also swept by the Cardinals and Orioles in the two series before Colorado. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average this season. The Marlins offense has scored 415 runs with a .263 batting average and a .320 on base percentage. Luis Arraez is batting .375 with three home runs and 49 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, who is 3-9 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 126.1 innings pitched this year. 

Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 62-42 this season and they have lost seven of their last nine games. Tampa Bay did get a big win on Tuesday night, but they lost six out of their previous seven games against the Rangers and Orioles. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .225 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 544 runs with a .256 batting average and a .328 on base percentage this year. Randy Arozarena is batting .266 with 17 home runs and 62 RBI’s for the Rays. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Zach Eflin, who is 11-5 with a 3.36 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 112.1 innings pitched this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Team Facts

  • The Rays have won each of their last seven home games against the Marlins.
  • The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Wednesday home games against NL East opponents.
  • The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games against the Marlins at Tropicana Field.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last three day games between the Marlins and Rays at Tropicana Field.
  • The Rays have trailed after 7 innings in seven of their last 10 games as favourites against National League opponents.

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The Marlins have lost each of their last 18 games against AL East opponents following a loss.
  • The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last eight Wednesday games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games at Tropicana Field against American League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last three day games at Tropicana Field.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last six games at Tropicana Field against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

  • Josh Lowe has recorded a hit in each of his last eight Wednesday appearances with the Rays as favourites.
  • Wander Franco has scored at least one run in four of the Rays' last five day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Zach Eflin has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five home appearances.
  • Wander Franco has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Rays' last five day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
  • Harold Ramirez has hit a home run in two of the Rays' last three games against the Marlins at Tropicana Field.
  • Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one total base in nine of his last 10 appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Wander Franco ranks T4th in the league in Steals (28) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Sandy Alcantara has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Jean Segura has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Joey Wendle has scored at least one run in four of his last five appearances at Tropicana Field against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit a home run in four of the Marlins' last 10 road games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Luis Arraez has recorded an RBI in three of the Marlins' last four road games.
  • Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Luis Arraez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.423) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Tampa Bay Rays ranks 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (771).
  • The Tampa Bay Rays ranks 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (397).
  • The Miami Marlins ranks 4th in the league for batting average this season (.263).
  • The Miami Marlins ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts this season (964).

Pick

Tampa Bay was able to get a win in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday, but they need to string a few wins together to gain some confidence. Tampa Bay started the season on a historic pace, but they have played right around .500 over the last couple of months. Miami also needs to figure things out, as they are sinking in the wild card standings. Miami is starting Sandy Alcantara, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts. Tampa Bay is starting Zach Eflin, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Eflin is coming off of a great performance against Baltimore in his last outing and he will face a Marlins lineup that doesn’t hit the ball very well. Take the Rays here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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