Marlins vs Rays Prediction - MLB Picks 7/25/23

Tampa Bay Rays (61-42) vs Miami Marlins (54-47)

Game Info: Tuesday, July 25, 2023 at 6:40 pm (Tropicana Field)

Tyler Glasnow (3-3) (3.62) vs Edward Cabrera (5-5) (4.50)

Betting Odds: Tampa Bay Rays -190 / Miami Marlins +160 --- Over/Under: 7 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Marlins will play the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of their series on Tuesday night at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Miami finally snapped their eight game losing streak with a win over Colorado on Sunday, while Tampa Bay only has one win in their last eight games. 

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 54-47 this season and they have lost eight of their last nine games. Miami is coming off of a series loss at home to the Rockies, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, Miami lost all three games in their series in St. Louis. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average this season. The Marlins offense has scored 414 runs with a .264 batting average and a .322 on base percentage. Jorge Soler is batting .245 with 24 home runs and 54 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Edward Cabrera, who is 5-5 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 72.0 innings pitched this year. 

Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 61-42 this season and they have lost seven of their last eight games. Tampa Bay is coming off of a series loss to the Orioles, where they lost three out of four games. The Rays have really struggled recently and they are now in second place in the AL East. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .226 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 540 runs with a .256 batting average and a .328 on base percentage this year. Randy Arozarena is batting .269 with 17 home runs and 62 RBI’s for the Rays. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Tyler Glasnow, who is 3-3 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 54.2 innings pitched this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Team Facts

  • The Rays have won each of their last six home games against the Marlins.
  • The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against National League opponents.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rays' last three night games at Tropicana Field.
  • The Rays have trailed after 7 innings in seven of their last nine games as favourites against National League opponents.
  • The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Tuesday games against the Marlins.

Miami Marlins Team Facts

  • The Marlins have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs.
  • The Marlins have covered the run line seven of their last eight road games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last four night games against AL East opponents.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games at Tropicana Field.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five games at Tropicana Field against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

  • Tyler Glasnow has recorded nine or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Rays as home favourites against NL East opponents.
  • Randy Arozarena has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Rays' last four games as favourites against the Marlins.
  • Yandy Diaz has recorded two or more hits in each of the Rays' last three home games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Isaac Paredes has hit a home run in each of his last two home appearances after not playing the previous day.
  • Wander Franco has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances after not playing the previous day.
  • Yandy Diaz ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.317) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Jorge Soler has hit a home run in four of the Marlins' last seven night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances.
  • Jean Segura has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one total base in each of his last seven road appearances.
  • Luis Arraez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.427) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Tampa Bay Rays ranks 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (769).
  • The Tampa Bay Rays ranks 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (396).
  • The Miami Marlins ranks 4th in the league for batting average this season (.264).
  • The Miami Marlins are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Pick

Both of these teams come into this series desperately needing a series win, but both teams have really struggled recently. Miami is under .500 on the road, while Tampa Bay is 36-18 at home this year. Miami is starting Edward Cabrera, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts. Tampa Bay is starting Tyler Glasnow, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. Both of these starting pitchers have been solid in recent starts and both of these offenses have been sputtering lately. I like the under here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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