Padres vs Tigers Prediction - MLB Picks 7/23/23

Detroit Tigers (44-54) vs San Diego Padres (48-51)

Game Info: Sunday, July 23, 2023 at 12:05 pm (Comerica Park)

Alex Faedo (1-4) (6.98) vs Joe Musgrove (9-2) (3.16)

Betting Odds: Detroit Tigers / San Diego Padres --- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The San Diego Padres will play the Detroit Tigers in Game 3 of their series on Sunday afternoon at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. San Diego has won the first two games in this series by scores of 5-4 and 14-3. The Padres fell down 3-0 early in Game 2 on Saturday, but they responded with 14 unanswered runs for the win. 

Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres are 48-51 this season and they have won four of their last five games. Prior to winning the first two games in this series, San Diego won two out of three games in Toronto. The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.77 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average this season. The Padres offense has scored 453 runs with a .237 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. Juan Soto is batting .268 with 19 home runs and 60 RBI’s for the Padres. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Joe Musgrove, who is 9-2 with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 85.1 innings pitched this year. 

Tigers Preview

The Detroit Tigers are 44-54 this season and they have lost four of their last seven games. Prior to this series, Detroit won three out of four games in Kansas City. The Detroit pitching staff has a 4.47 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Tigers offense has scored 383 runs with a .230 batting average and a .298 on base percentage this year. Spencer Torkelson is batting .226 with 14 home runs and 52 RBI’s for the Tigers. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Alex Faedo, who is 1-4 with a 6.98 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 29.2 innings pitched this season.

Detroit Tigers Team Facts

  • The Tigers have won five of their last six games as underdogs following a home loss.
  • The Tigers have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs following a home loss.
  • The Tigers have led after 3 innings in 10 of their last 15 games as underdogs.
  • The Tigers have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 15 games as underdogs.
  • The Tigers have led after 7 innings in each of their last five home day games.

San Diego Padres Team Facts

  • The Padres have won nine of their last 10 games against American League opponents.
  • The Padres have failed to cover the run line each of their last 10 day games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against the Tigers at Comerica Park.
  • The Padres have led after 7 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

  • Riley Greene has recorded at least one RBI in three of his last four appearances with the Tigers as home underdogs against NL opponents.
  • Riley Greene has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances at Comerica Park against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Kerry Carpenter has hit a home run in each of his two previous appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
  • Riley Greene has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances against NL opponents at Comerica Park.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

  • Joe Musgrove has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Padres as favourites.
  • Juan Soto has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Padres' last four games as road favourites against AL Central opponents.
  • Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Manny Machado has hit a home run in three of the Padres' last four games as favourites against AL Central opponents.
  • Juan Soto has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last six appearances with his team as a road favourite against AL Central opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Detroit Tigers ranks 28th in the league for RBI's this season (372).
  • The Detroit Tigers ranks 28th in the league for batting average this season (.230).
  • The San Diego Padres are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
  • The San Diego Padres ranks 4th in the league for ERA this season (3.79).

Pick

The Padres had a huge day offensively on Saturday night after they got off to a slow start. Detroit took an early 3-0 lead in the game, but the Padres erupted for 14 unanswered runs in the win. San Diego will look for the sweep here, as they try to climb back into the playoff race. San Diego is starting Joe Musgrove, who has allowed five earned runs over his last five starts (38 IP). Detroit is starting Alex Faedo, who has allowed 13 earned runs in his last two starts (8 IP). The Padres are the better hitting team in this matchup and they have the better starting pitcher, so I like them to win by at least two runs here. 

David’s Pick Padres -1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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