Orioles vs Rays Prediction - MLB Picks 7/23/23

Tampa Bay Rays (61-41) vs Baltimore Orioles (60-38)

Game Info: Sunday, July 23, 2023 at 1:40 pm (Tropicana Field)

Taj Bradley (5-6) (5.29) vs Tyler Wells (7-5) (3.54)

Betting Odds: Tampa Bay Rays -140 / Baltimore Orioles +115 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Baltimore Orioles will play the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 4 of their series on Sunday afternoon at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Baltimore has won two of the first three games in this series by scores of 4-3 and 6-5, while Tampa Bay did win Game 2 by a score of 3-0 on Friday. 

Orioles Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 60-38 this season and they have won 11 of their last 14 games. Prior to this series, Baltimore lost two out of three games at home to the Dodgers. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.20 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .251 opponent batting average this season. The Orioles offense has scored 483 runs with a .252 batting average and a .321 on base percentage. Adley Rutschman is batting .270 with 13 home runs and 42 RBI’s for the Orioles. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Tyler Wells, who is 7-5 with a 3.54 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over 106.2 innings pitched this year. 

Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 61-41 this season and they have lost six of their last seven games. Prior to this series, Tampa Bay lost all three of their games at Texas. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has 3.69 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .226 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 537 runs with a .257 batting average and a .328 on base percentage this year. Randy Arozarena is batting .271 with 17 home runs and 62 RBI’s for the Rays. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Taj Bradley, who is 5-6 with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 66.1 innings pitched this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Team Facts

  • The Rays have won each of their last 12 home games against the Orioles following a home loss.
  • The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last nine games against American League opponents following a home loss.
  • The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last 10 Sunday day games against the Orioles at Tropicana Field.
  • The Rays have led after 7 innings in each of their last nine Sunday day games against the Orioles at Tropicana Field.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rays' last five games against American League opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Team Facts

  • The Orioles have won each of their last nine Sunday day games.
  • The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games at Tropicana Field following a road win.
  • The Orioles have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Orioles have led after 7 innings in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Orioles' last four games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

  • Isaac Paredes has hit a home run in each of the Rays' last three Sunday games.
  • Jose Siri has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight home appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Yandy Diaz has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last nine Sunday day appearances with the Rays as favourites.
  • Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one RBI in eight of his last nine appearances against AL East opponents at Tropicana Field.
  • Yandy Diaz ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.316) this season.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

  • Tyler Wells has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against AL East opponents.
  • Anthony Santander has hit at least one home run in four of the Orioles' last five Sunday day games.
  • Gunnar Henderson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Orioles' last six day games.
  • Austin Hays has recorded two or more total bases in five of his last seven appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
  • Gunnar Henderson has recorded an RBI in four of the Orioles' last five day games.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Tampa Bay Rays ranks 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (761).
  • The Tampa Bay Rays ranks 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (391).
  • The Baltimore Orioles ranks 8th in the league for RBI's this season (467).
  • The Baltimore Orioles ranks 23rd in the league for hits allowed this season (847).

Pick

The Rays continue their free fall as they have lost six of their last seven games. Tampa Bay started the season playing at a historic pace, but they don’t even lead the AL East now. Baltimore is playing very well and they are one of the best road teams in baseball. Baltimore is starting Tyler Wells, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Tampa Bay is starting Taj Bradley, who has allowed 2, 4, 5, and 7 earned runs over his last four outings. Bradley has really struggled in his recent starts and I think the Baltimore bats will get to him here. Take the Orioles to get the series win. 

David’s Pick Orioles ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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