Braves vs Brewers Prediction - MLB Picks 7/23/23

Milwaukee Brewers (55-44) vs Atlanta Braves (63-34)

Game Info: Sunday, July 23, 2023 at 2:10 pm (American Family Field)

Julio Teheran (2-4) (4.01) vs Bryce Elder (7-2) (3.31)

Betting Odds: Milwaukee Brewers +145 / Atlanta Braves -175 --- Over/Under: 9.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Atlanta Braves will play the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 3 of their series on Sunday afternoon at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Atlanta won the first game in this series by a score of 6-4 and led Game 2 by a score of 3-0, but allowed four unanswered runs for the loss. Which team will win this game and the series?

Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 63-34 this season and they have lost five of their last seven games. Prior to splitting the first two games in this series, Atlanta lost two out of three games at home against Arizona. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average this year. The Braves offense has scored 546 runs with a .267 batting average and a .337 on base percentage. Ronald Acuna is batting .330 with 23 home runs and 58 RBI’s for the Braves. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Bryce Elder, who is 7-2 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 108.2 innings pitched this season.

Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 55-44 this season and they have won seven of their last nine games. Prior to this series, Milwaukee won two out of three games on the road in Philadelphia. The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .235 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 412 runs with a .231 batting average and a .310 on base percentage this season. William Contreras is batting .273 with 10 home runs and 37 RBI’s for the Brewers. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Julio Teheran, who is 2-4 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 51.2 innings pitched this year. 

Milwaukee Brewers Team Facts

  • The Brewers have won each of their last 10 Sunday games against National League opponents.
  • The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against the Braves at American Family Field following a win.
  • The Brewers have led after 3 innings in each of their last three Sunday day games as home underdogs.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last five day games between the Braves and Brewers.

Atlanta Braves Team Facts

  • The Braves have won each of their last eight day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last seven road games against the Brewers following a loss.
  • The Braves have led after 3 innings in each of their last six road games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Braves have led after 7 innings in each of their last six day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Braves have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against the Brewers.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

  • Willy Adames has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Brewers' last nine home games against NL opponents.
  • Julio Teheran has recorded four or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances at American Family Field.
  • Christian Yelich has hit a home run in each of the Brewers' last two day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Willy Adames has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers' last six games at American Family Field against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Willy Adames has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Brewers' last five games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

  • Travis d'Arnaud has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 Sunday appearances against teams that held a winning record.
  • Travis d'Arnaud has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last six road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • Travis d'Arnaud has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last six appearances with the Braves as road favourites against NL Central opponents.
  • Austin Riley has hit at least one home run in each of the Braves' last five games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Matt Olson ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (32) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 27th in the league for doubles this season (142).
  • The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 27th in the league for batting average this season (.231).
  • The Atlanta Braves ranks 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.267).
  • The Atlanta Braves ranks 2nd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.337).

Pick

The Braves had a great chance to win the series on Saturday, but they were unable to hold a 3-0 lead and ended up with the loss. Atlanta has had some struggles recently, while Milwaukee is playing some of their best baseball of the year. The Brewers are starting Julio Teheran, who has allowed 4, 6, and 7 earned runs over his last three starts. Atlanta is starting Bryce Elder, who has allowed 12 earned runs over his last two starts (6 IP). Neither starting pitcher has been very sharp recently and I think the Braves will have a huge day off of Teheran. Take the over here. 

David’s Pick Over 9.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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