Mets vs Reds Prediction - MLB Picks 5/11/23

Cincinnati Reds (15-20) vs New York Mets (17-19)

Game Info: Thursday, May 11, 2023 at 12:35 pm (Great American Ball Park)

Ben Lively (0-0) (0.00) vs Kodai Senga (4-1) (3.38)

Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds +166 / New York Mets -184 --- Over/Under: 9.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The New York Mets and the Cincinnati Reds will conclude their three-game set this Thursday from the Great American Ballpark. New York struck back in game two with a one-run win, 2-1.

Mets Betting Preview

New York moved to 18-19 after defeating Cincinnati. The Mets snapped a three-game skid with the win yesterday, and they’ll look to close strong here. The New York offense is scoring 4.37 runs per game, while batting .236, with a .334 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 4.82 ERA, with a 1.34 WHIP. Brandon Nimmo had three hits in the win over Cincy, and he leads the Mets in batting average (.311). Pete Alonso has homered in both contests, and he’s up to team-highs of 12 HR and 30 RBI. 

Kodai Senga (4-1, 3.38 ERA, 13 Ks) will take the mound for New York. The first-year pitcher responded to his first MLB loss with a strong effort in Queens against Colorado, tossing six shutout innings to get back into the win column. Senga has cleared six strikeouts in four of his first six outings, but he’s only delivered two quality starts during this span. 

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Reds Betting Preview

Cincinnati moved to 15-21 after losing to New York. The Reds nearly took game two, and after being held off late, they’ll look to close the series strong Thursday. The Cincinnati offense is scoring 3.78 runs per game, while batting .244, with a .324 on-base percentage. The pitching staff carries a 5.22 ERA, with a 1.50 WHIP. TJ Friedl leads the team in batting (.314), after recording multiple hits in three of the last five games. Jonathan India recorded three RBI in the game one victory over NYM, and he leads Cincy in runs (27).

Derek Law (2-4, 3.00 ERA, 31 Ks) will begin the contest for Cincinnati. The eighth-year reliever has been active early this season with 17 appearances already. Law has delivered shutout ball in all but four games thus far.

New York vs Cincinnati Trends

New York is 15-23 against the spread this season, with a 16-20-1 O/U record. Cincinnati is 21-15 ATS this year, with a 19-17 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

After giving us a snoozer yesterday, I think these two squads wake up at the plate and find success. Kodai Senga has allowed four runs in each of his last two road bouts, so while he may be able to pitch and get the job done for the Mets, he will likely surrender some production. Take the Over for game three of the Mets/Reds series.

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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