Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction - MLB Picks 5/4/23

Boston Red Sox (18-14) vs Toronto Blue Jays (18-13)

Game Info: Thursday, May 4, 2023 at 6:10 pm (Fenway Park)

Brayan Bello (0-1) (6.57) vs Kevin Gausman (2-2) (2.33)

Betting Odds: Boston Red Sox +130 / Toronto Blue Jays -160 --- Over/Under: 9 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Toronto Blue Jays will play the Boston Red Sox in Game 4 of their series on Thursday night at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.

Blue Jays Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are 18-13 this season and they have lost four games in a row. Prior to losing the first three games in this series, Toronto won two out of three games against Seattle. The Toronto pitching staff has a 4.12 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average this year. The Blue Jays offense has scored 146 runs with a .254 batting average and a .330 on base percentage. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .317 with six home runs and 18 RBI’s for the Blue Jays. The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Kevin Gausman, who is 2-2 with a 2.33 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP over 38.2 innings pitched this season.

Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 18-14 this season and they have won five games in a row. Boston has won the first three games in this series by scores of 6-5, 7-6, and 8-3. The Boston pitching staff has a 4.93 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a .258 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 184 runs with a .270 batting average and a .342 on base percentage this season. Rafael Devers is batting .226 with 10 home runs and 27 RBI’s for the Red Sox. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Brayan Bello, who is 0-1 with a 6.57 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP over 12.1 innings pitched this year.

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Toronto is 4-0 in their last 4 game four’s of a series and 2-5 in their last 7 games after losing the first three games in a series. The over is 7-1 in Toronto’s last 8 Thursday games. Boston is 5-0 in their last 5 games and 10-4 in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record. The over is 8-2 in Boston’s last 10 home games. The over is 7-0 in these two teams last 7 head to head meetings.


Boston comes into this matchup looking to complete the four game sweep, but the starting pitching matchup does not favor them. The Red Sox are starting Brayan Bello, who has allowed eight earned runs in 12.1 innings pitched this year. The Blue Jays will turn to Kevin Gausman, who hasn’t allowed a run in 14.0 straight innings. I like the Blue Jays -1.5 in this game. 

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David’s Pick Blue Jays -1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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