MLB Picks and Predictions for 7/28/21 - Free MLB Picks
Photo by Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
MLB Games on Wednesday July 28th, 2021
We have a full slate of MLB games on Wednesday, July 28, 2021, with all 30 teams set to play. Check out our best picks below, as well as the updated betting odds.
Detroit Tigers +135 Minnesota Twins -145 Total: 10.5
Over the last two weeks the Tigers have a .270 average, good for 5th in the majors. They have averaged over 5 runs per game over that stretch and will have a nice edge on the mound with Wily Peralta starting. He has allowed just one run in his last 12 innings against the Twins this season. With Minnesota slumping from the plate, take the Tigers on the road.
Pick: Detroit Tigers +135
St. Louis Cardinals +101 Cleveland Indians -111 Total: 9
The Cardinals are heating up from the plate, ranking second in hitting over the last week. Starter Kwang Hyun Kim has won each of his last 5 starts, allowing just 3 runs over that stretch. The Indians have been respectable at home, but with a .207 average over the last 5 games it is hard to back them here. Take the Cardinals on the road.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals +101
Houston Astros -130 Seattle Mariners +120 Total: 8.5
Seattle has been a great team at home, but starter Yusei Kikuchi has struggled of late. The Southpaw has allowed 15 runs over his last 16 innings (3 starts) and the team is 1-2 in those games. On the flip side the Astros have killed left-handed pitching this season, leading the league with a .277 average. Give me the Astros.
Pick: Houston Astros -130
Oakland Athletics +135 San Diego Padres -145 Total: 8.5
Oakland’s starter Sean Manaea has limited this Padres lineup to a .197 career average against him, while San Diego’s Blake Snell has limited the A’s to a .104 average against him. With two of the league’s top bullpens, and two lineups that have struggled against lefties this season, look for a low score in this one. Fade the total.
Pick: Under 8.5
New York Yankees +130 Tampa Bay Rays -140 Total: 8.5
Converted reliever Nestor Cortes will make his third start of the season for the Yankees, but he has yet to make it past the 5th inning in either start. With the Yankees recent bullpen issues, it will be hard to rely on them to keep the Rays bats at bay for nine innings. The Ray’s Michael Wacha has limited this Yankees lineup to a .130 career average against and will be backed by a bullpen that has a 3.40 ERA over the last week. Take the Rays at home.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -140
Miami Marlins Baltimore Orioles Total:
In his last 5 starts, the Orioles Jorge Lopez has allowed 16 runs and 36 hits over 22.2 innings pitched. On the flip side, the Marlins bullpen ranks 2nd with a 2.15 ERA over the last week. With Trevor Rodgers still out, they have not announced a starter for this one so Miami will likely lean on their bullpen. Neither offense has impressed of late, so give the edge to the more reliable Marlins ‘pen.
Pick: Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates Total:
The Brewers Eric Lauer has a 1.04 ERA through three starts in July and has been a better pitcher on the road this season. The Pirates are leading the league with a .289 average over the last two weeks but have a .141 career average against Lauer. The Brewers are averaging 5.5 runs per game over the last two weeks. Give me the Brewers.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers
Washington Nationals +162 Philadelphia Phillies -177 Total: 8
The Phillies are winning over 60% of their home games and will have the reliable Zack Wheeler going on Wednesday. They are 4-1 in his last 5 starts and he has a 2.09 ERA at home. The National’s Patrick Corbin looked good against the Phillies at home earlier in the year but will be on the road where he has a 6.13 ERA this season. Lay the juice on the Phillies.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -177
Atlanta Braves +115 New York Mets -125 Total: 8
The Braves’ ace Max Fried has not performed to standards this season as he has battled COVID/Injury issues this season. In his last 4 starts, he has allowed 13 runs and 26 hits over 22 innings. The Mets Tylor Megill has gotten better since his debut in June; he has not allowed a run in either of his last two starts, each going 6 innings. New York is also getting it done at the plate, ranking 3rd with a .276 average over the last two weeks. Give me the Mets to get it done at Citi Field.
Pick: New York Mets -125
Toronto Blue Jays +125 Boston Red Sox -135 Total: 11
The Red Sox have averaged nearly 6 runs per game over the last month, ranking 5th with 36 home runs. The Blue Jays’ Steven Matz has not looked good against Boston this season; he has allowed 14 hits and 6 runs in 11.2 innings. Boston’s top pitching prospect Tanner Houck has impressed since being inserted into the rotation and will be backed by one of the league’s more reliable ‘pens boasting a 3.56 ERA this season. Give me the Sox at home.
Pick: Boston Red Sox -135
Arizona Diamondbacks Texas Rangers Total:
Arizona has been turning things around from the plate, ranking 5th with a .824 OPS over the last two weeks. Since returning from IL earlier this month, the Diamondbacks’ Madison Bumgarner has allowed just 1 run in each of his first two starts. Over the last two weeks, the Rangers rank last with a .151 team average. Take the Diamondbacks on the road.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks
Cincinnati Reds -111 Chicago Cubs +101 Total:
The Reds Tyler Mahle has pitched well against the Cubs this season; he is 2-0 with just 1 run allowed across 10 IP, including 15 strikeouts. Over the last week they rank 4th with a .268 team average, scoring just over 4 runs per game. Zach Davies has been just average for Chicago, allowing 2 runs and going no more than 5 innings in each of his last 5 starts.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds -111
Chicago White Sox -177 Kansas City Royals +162 Total: 9.5
Lucas Giolito appears to be back on track after a few good outings for the White Sox; over his last 3 starts he has allowed just 4 runs across 20.1 innings with 20 strikeouts. Kris Bubic has also pitched well for the Royals, allowing just 1 run in each of his last two starts. Considering the White Sox struggles form the plate of late (ranking 29th with a .212 average over the last two weeks), expect this to be a low scoring affair.
Colorado Rockies +183 Los Angeles Angels -203 Total: 9
The Rockies have been terrible on the road, winning just over 20% of their games. Starter Chi Chi Gonzalez has allowed 14 runs in his last 14 innings for Colorado (3 starts). The Angels have not been the same offensive juggernaut since Trout went on the IL, but Shohei Ohtani has shouldered the load, hitting .275 with 7 home runs and 13 RBI this month. Lay the juice on the Angels.
Pick: Los Angeles Angels -203
Los Angeles Dodgers -135 San Francisco Giants +125 Total: 7.5
This has the makings of a pitchers’ duel, with Anthony DeSclafani and the Giants facing off against Walker Buehler and the Dodgers. Both teams have been scoring just over 4 runs per game over the last two weeks, but I expect the pitchers to crank up the intensity in a battle of two of the NL’s best. Considering they will both be backed by bullpens that rank in the top ten in ERA, this one should go under.
Pick: Under 7.5
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