MLB Picks and Predictions for 5/4/21 - Free MLB Picks
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Tuesday, May 4th, 2021
It is Tuesday, May 5th, 2021, in Major League Baseball and all 30 teams are playing. We have 17 total games with two doubleheaders, so there is plenty of value on the table. Here are the odds and betting picks.
Los Angeles Dodgers -175 Chicago Cubs +150 Total: 5 (Game One)
The Dodgers were able to salvage the final game of their four-game series against the Brewers and they should have Clayton Kershaw on the mound in game one. Against the Cubs’ Adbert Alzolay or Kyle Hendricks, I like the Dodgers’ chances in game one.
Pick: Dodgers -175 Game One
Chicago White Sox -120 Cincinnati Reds +100 Total: 9.5
Both the White Sox’s Dylan Cease and the Reds’ Jeff Hoffman have ERAs below 3.40 this season, yet the total is still steep at 9.5. This is not surprising when you look at these two lineups and how they are built for a slugfest of a series at Great American Ballpark this week. I like the over and expect plenty of homers.
Pick: Over 9.5 runs
Atlanta Braves -135 Washington Nationals +115 Total: 9.5
I trust the Braves’ Huascar Ynoa a lot more than I do the Nationals’ Joe Ross in this matchup. The Braves are four games under .500 but I do not think their struggles continue for too much longer. This could be the breakout series Atlanta needs, and I like the Braves on Tuesday.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -135
San Francisco Giants Colorado Rockies Total: 7.5 (Game One)
The Giants are projected to bring Aaron Sanchez to the mound while Colorado is set to send German Marquez. If the Rockies win a game in this doubleheader, I think game one will be that game. I will take Colorado here.
Pick: Colorado Rockies ML
Houston Astros -105 New York Yankees -115 Total: 8.5
I am not confident that either starter is going to make it deep in this game, as Zack Greinke has a velocity issue right now and is not striking out batters, while Domingo German has never pitched deep into games anyway. I think we see plenty of runs from both sides, making the over a solid play in this contest.
Pick: Over 8.5 runs
Arizona Diamondbacks +125 Miami Marlins -145 Total: 7.5
UPDATE: I like the under in this contest as the Marlins have struggled to score without Marte and Sandy Alcantara should be able to keep this game low-scoring for quite a while. I think the low total of 7.5 tells you all you need to know.
Pick: Under 7.5
Milwaukee Brewers +165 Philadelphia Phillies -190 Total: 7.5
Although the Phillies’ Aaron Nola is a solid #1 starter, I do not think he deserves a -190 price against a Brewers team that is off to a great start this season. The Brewers should win this game a lot more often than their +165 price may suggest, therefore, the Brewers are the strong play in my eyes because of value.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +165
Detroit Tigers +153 Boston Red Sox -178 Total: 9
The Tigers’ Michael Fulmer is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA so far this season, but the Tigers are really struggling offensively and are currently the worst team in baseball record-wise. The Red Sox’s Nick Pivetta should have success on Tuesday night and I think the Red Sox win this game easily. I will lay the run line with Boston.
Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5
Texas Rangers +130 Minnesota Twins -150 Total: 8.5
Both the Rangers’ Kyle Gibson and the Twins’ J.A. Happ are off to great starts to the season. I am still not 100% convinced with Happ, however, and think this could be a start where he gets hit hard. I will take the dog in the Rangers for that reason, as they hold all the value in this one.
Pick: Texas Rangers +130
New York Mets -190 St. Louis Cardinals +165 Total: 6.5
Getting Jacob deGrom and the Mets at less than a -200 price is a bargain to me, and although laying -190 is not always ideal, there is no doubt that deGrom is the best pitcher in the game and the Mets should have his back on Tuesday. The Cardinals’ Johan Oviedo should have a solid start but deGrom will out-duel him.
Pick: New York Mets -190
Cleveland Indians +120 Kansas City Royals -140 Total: 9
The Indians’ Sam Hentges does not have enough work under his belt for me to take a chance on him in this spot against the Royals’ veteran Mike Minor. I think the Royals are plainly the better team and are at home for this contest, so I like KC on the money line on Tuesday night.
Pick: Kansas City Royals -140
Tampa Bay Rays -110 Los Angeles Angels -110 Total: 8.5
The Rays’ top pitching prospect in Shane McClanahan has some wicked stuff and has great velocity on his fastball. Do not let his 4.50 ERA fool you, this kid has great talent and should be an above-average pitcher in the league for quite some time. The Angels’ Alex Cobb does not impress me one bit and I look to fade him as many times as possible. Tuesday is no exception, I like Tampa Bay.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -110
Toronto Blue Jays +110 Oakland Athletics -130 Total: 9
The Blue Jays will more than likely be using a bullpen game on Tuesday, but the Jays’ pen has been great to start the season. I think Toronto gets to the A’s Cole Irvin early and often, making for a Blue Jays victory in the end.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +110
Los Angeles Dodgers -175 Chicago Cubs +150 Total: (Game Two)
Either Trevor Bauer or Walker Buehler are projected to pitch in the second game of this doubleheader, and either is a lot better of an option than the Cubs’ Adbert Alzolay or Kyle Hendricks. I think the Dodgers sweep the doubleheader but check back soon for updates to the odds and starters.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -175
Baltimore Orioles +115 Seattle Mariners -130 Total: 8.5
The Orioles’ Jorge Lopez has struggled all season long and I do not see him finding success against these Mariners on Tuesday. The Mariners’ Justin Dunn is the better pitcher with a lot better stuff, and I think we are getting the M’s at a great price.
Pick: Seattle Mariners -130
San Francisco Giants TBA Colorado Rockies TBA Total: TBA (Game Two)
UPDATE: It looks like Alex Wood and Ryan Castellani are the projected starters for game two for the Giants and Rockies respectively. I give the edge to San Francisco and will take the Giants on the money line.
Pick: San Francisco Giants ML
Pittsburgh Pirates +200 San Diego Padres -215 Total: 8
The Padres’ Ryan Weathers matches up very well with the Pirates’ Mitch Keller. Keller’s 8.20 ERA does not bode well against these Padres at Petco Park, and I think the Padres earn a decisive victory on Tuesday night. I will lay the run line with the Friars.
Pick: San Diego Padres -1.5