MLB Picks and Predictions for 5/1/21 - Free MLB Picks
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Free MLB Picks
MLB Games on Friday May 1st
With 15 MLB games to choose from on Saturday, May 1,2021, there are plenty of options for some baseball action. Check out our free MLB picks, as well as the betting odds.
Detroit Tigers +183 New York -203 Yankees Total: 8.5
The Yankees Jameson Taillon has had an up and down 2021 with a 6.23 ERA, but has been significantly better at home, with a 2.79 ERA in 2 starts. The Yankees bullpen has also been effective, owning the leagues best 0.95 WHIP to start the year. Detroit’s Spencer Turnbell has limited baserunners in his first two starts, owning a 0.82 WHIP. However, both starts were at home and he had a 5.74 ERA with nearly a hit per inning in 6 road starts during 2020. The Yankees lead the league with 10 home runs over the last 7 days and have a .292 career batting average against Turnbell. Back the Yankees.
Pick: New York Yankees -203
Miami Marlins +135 Washington Nationals -145 Total: 8.5
The Marlins young righty Paul Campbell will make his first career start after getting hit hard in 4 relief appearances this season, allowing 7 earned runs on 10 hits through 7.2 innings. The one positive is 9 strikeouts, but the Nationals have the struck out less than all but one team in the majors thus far. Washington’s Patrick Corbin has a lofty 10.47 ERA through 4 starts however he tossed 6 scoreless innings with 5 strikeouts in his last start at home. Take the Nationals here.
Pick: Washington Nationals -145
Kansas City Royals +105 Minnesota Twins -115 Total: 8
The Royals Danny Duffy has allowed just 3 runs through 23 innings to start 2021 and will face a Twins lineup he has limited to a .217 career batting average against. It has been the opposite for Minnesota’s Matt Shoemaker, who has allowed 5 home runs through 19.2 innings with a 5.49 ERA this year. The Twins are just 3-7 at home while the Royals are 7-3 on the road. Take the Royals with great value on the road.
Pick: Kansas City +105
Cleveland Indians +150 Chicago White Sox -160 Total: 7.5
The Chicago White Sox lead the league with a .309 average over the last 7 days. They will also be starting Lance Lynn in this one, who has a 1.20 ERA, 21 strikeouts and a .083 batting average against at home in 2 starts this season. Cleveland’s Tristan McKenzie has walked 18 batters through 16.2 innings pitched in 2021, which will be a recipe for disaster against this hot White Sox offense. Chicago should win this one and has covered the run line in five of their last six wins.
Pick: Chicago -1.5
Baltimore Orioles +150 Oakland Athletics -160 Total: 8
The Orioles Matt Harvey has gotten better with each start this year, culminating in a 6 inning-one run outing against New York last time out. The A’s on the other hand have cooled off, dropping three of five since their 13 game winning streak. Oaklands Jesus Luzardo gave up 7 hits and 2 home runs against the Orioles just last week and has allowed a hit per inning in 3 starts at home this season. Baltimore has been competitive with a 7-4 road record this season, so Ill take a stab on the underdog here.
Pick: Baltimore Orioles +150
Chicago Cubs +143 Cincinnati Reds -153 Total: 8.5
The Reds Luis Castillo (6.29 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) and the Cubs Zach Davies (9.47 ERA, 2.21 WHIP) have both struggled through five starts this season. However, both have limited these lineups to sub-.210 batting averages in over 100 career at bats. Over the last 7 days, the Reds average just 2.6 runs per game, and the Cubs average 3.1. Take the under here.
Pick: Under 8.5
Houston Astros -105 Tampa Bay Rays -105 Total: 7.5
Houston has been playing well of late, winning six of their last eight now that their lineup is back to full strength. Tampa Bay is just 6-8 at home this year and have scored just 2.3 runs per game over their last 6 games. The Rays southpaw Rich Hill has allowed 10 earned runs with 4 homers in 16.1 innings pitched at home this season. The Astros lead the majors with 54 runs scored off left-handed pitching this season. Back Houston.
Pick: Houston Astros -105
New York Mets +105 Philadelphia Phillies -115 Total: 8
The Mets Taijuan Walker has owned this Phillies lineup in his career, with a .136 batting average against and 17 strikeouts in 49 career at bats. It has been the opposite for the Phillies Zack Wheeler, who has allowed a .319 average in 100 at bats against the Mets lineup. New York’s bullpen has also gotten better as the year has gone on, and have a 2.25 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .194 batting average against over the last 7 days. Despite a 3-6 record on the road to start the season, give me the Mets in this one.
Pick: New York Mets +105
St. Louis Cardinals -125 Pittsburgh +115 Pirates Total: 7
The Cardinals Jack Flaherty has allowed just four runs over his last four starts and has limited these Pirates to a .187 average with 27 strikeouts in 83 career at bats. Pittsburgh’s Trevor Cahill has given up over a hit per innings through four starts and has allowed a .365 career average to this Cardinals lineup. St. Louis will have to get to Cahill early as Pittsburgh’s bullpen ranks 4th in the majors with a 1.07 WHIP this year. This should be a tight game, but I’ll back the Cardinals who are 5-0 in Flaherty’s starts this season.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -125
Boston Red Sox -172 Texas Rangers +157 Total: 8.5
Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has only walked two batters through 23 innings and Texas has just a .220 average against southpaws this season. Boston’s offense has been great to start the season, ranking 5th with 123 runs scored and 3rd with a .261 average. Texas’s Jordan Lyles has allowed 16 hits and 4 home runs in 7 innings at home this season. Give me Boston.
Pick: Boston Red Sox -172
Atlanta Braves -135 Toronto Blue Jays +125 Total: 10.5
Toronto was late to announce a starter here so will likely rely on their bullpen to eat the majority of the innings. Their bullpen ranks 1st in the majors with a 2.30 ERA to start the season. Atlanta’s Charlie Morton has allowed 11 runs over his last 15.1 innings, and this Toronto’s lineup owns a .322 average in 72 career at bats against him. The Braves Ronald Acuna Jr. was off to an MVP start; however, he is just 3-23 since returning from injury a few weeks ago. Back Toronto at home.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +125
Los Angeles Dodgers -115 Milwaukee Brewers +105 Total: 7
This will be a pitchers’ duel between the Brewers Brandon Woodruff and the Dodgers Dustin May. Both own sub-1 WHIP’s with over a strikeout per inning to start the year. The Dodgers have been the more potent offense, ranking 3rd in the majors with 126 runs scored. Milwaukee has the 5th worst batting average at .215, and those numbers are virtually identical at home. In a low scoring game, I trust Los Angeles here.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -115
Colorado Rockies +157 Arizona Diamondbacks -172 Total: 8.5
The Rockies have been awful on the road this year, going 1-9 in their first ten games. The Diamondbacks have been average at home but will have the clear edge on the mound. Zac Gallen has a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP to start the year and tossed 7 shutout innings with just 1 hit allowed against the Braves last time out. Arizona is 8-2 in their last 10 games heading into Friday night, and should be able to take advantage of a plus-matchup here.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -172
San Francisco Giants +150 San Diego Padres -160 Total: 7
The Giants Anthony DeSclafani has a 1.50 ERA to start the season but has allowed nearly a hit per inning on the road and they are 0-2 in those starts. He has also never had an ERA below 3.00 in 6 seasons prior, so he is due for some regression as the year goes on. San Diego’s Blake Snell has a 2.45 ERA at home with 23 strikeouts in 14.2 innings this season, and the Giants have just a .206 career average against him. San Diego lost two of three to San Francisco at home earlier in the year, but I like them to bounce back in this one after going 4-2 on their last road trip.
Pick: San Diego Padres -160
Los Angeles Angels -135 Seattle Mariners +125 Total: 8.5
Seattle will start Ljay Newsome for the first time this season. He has a 1.69 ERA through 10.2 innings of relief work and will have the luxury of facing this Angels lineup for the first time. Seattle will likely use him in an opener roll, so will rely heavily on their bullpen. Their bullpen ranks 3rd in the majors with a 2.38 ERA this year. Los Angeles’ bullpen has a 4.36 ERA and Saturday’s starter Griffin Canning has a 8.53 road ERA with over a hit per inning allowed. He has also allowed at least one home run in each of his first four starts this season. Take a chance on the home dogs in this one.
Pick: Seattle Mariners +125