MLB Picks and Predictions for 4/30/21 - Free MLB Picks
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MLB Games on Friday, April 30th
13:50:32It’s Friday night in the MLB and all 30 teams are in action. Here are the odds and picks for each of these 15 games in Major League Baseball.
St. Louis Cardinals -120 Pittsburgh Pirates +100 Total: 8
The Pirates have been a great value team this season, making money line bettors a profit of $625 this season (per $100 bets). I think the Pirates hold some value again on Friday with JT Brubaker on the mound against the Cardinals’ John Gant. Pittsburgh got the day off on Thursday while St. Louis had to play an extra-inning game, so I will take the Buckos.
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +100
Miami Marlins -130 Washington Nationals +120 Total: 8
The Marlins’ Pablo Lopez is coming off a bounce-back start against the Giants and I think the Marlins are plainly the better team in this matchup. The Nationals’ Joe Ross has a 4.64 ERA and a 5.71 FIP, so he will not be getting any of my money.
Pick: Miami Marlins -130
Detroit Tigers +265 New York Yankees -330 Total: 7.5
There is no value in this game any way you slice it, as the Yankees are going to win and more than likely win by a few runs. With the Yankees' Gerrit Cole on the mound against the Tigers' Tarik Skubal, this makes for a complete mismatch. If you had to bet this game, I suggest taking the Yankees at -2.5 or -3.5 in an alternate run-line, but otherwise, I would stay away.
Pick:New York Yankees -2.5
New York Mets -140 Philadelphia Phillies +120 Total: 8.5
The Phillies’ Chase Anderson should not have a job in the majors as a starting pitcher. The Mets’ Marcus Stroman has a 3-1 record with a 2.25 ERA. Stroman is coming off his worst performance of the season against the Nationals, but I think he fares a lot better than Anderson here. I like the Mets on the money line.
Pick: New York Mets -140
Atlanta Braves -126 Toronto Blue Jays +108 Total: 9.5
The Braves’ Drew Smyly and the Blue Jays’ Robbie Ray are two pitchers that I fade often. Ray’s ERA is very deceiving, as he has a 5.34 FIP with a major walk/home run problem. I expect both teams to score plenty of runs in this one, making the over a strong play here.
Pick: Over 9.5 runs
Chicago Cubs +100 Cincinnati Reds -120 Total: 8.5
Both veterans in Chicago’s Jake Arrieta and Cincinnati’s Wade Miley have held down the fort this season with exceptional ERAs. Both teams are under .500 this season but I give the edge to the Reds and their lineup. This should be a tight game and series but I will lean Cincinnati’s way.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds -120
Houston Astros -117 Tampa Bay Rays+107 Total: 8
The Rays’ bats are struggling too much at the moment for me too take a chance on them here. The Astros’ Lance McCullers Jr has a 3.90 FIP which suggests that he is pitching a bit better than his 4.58 ERA shows. The Rays’ Ryan Yarbrough is a bad matchup for this righty-heavy Astros lineup in my opinion.
Pick: Houston Astros -117
Boston Red Sox -160 Texas Rangers -140 Total: 8.5
The Red Sox’s Nathan Eovaldi is a lot better than what we saw in his last start against the Mariners. I think he has a much stronger start against the Rangers on Friday and the Red Sox score more than enough on the Rangers’ Kohei Arihara and supporting bullpen.
Pick: Boston Red Sox -160
Cleveland Indians -140 Chicago White Sox +120 Total: 7
I think we are going to see a fantastic pitcher’s duel between the Indians’ Shane Bieber and the White Sox’s Dallas Keuchel. Both are former Cy Young winners and should both put on a show on Friday evening. Runs will be at a premium and I like the under.
Pick: Under 7 runs
Kansas City Royals +115 Minnesota Twins -135 Total: 8
Both the Royals’ Brady Singer and the Twins’ Michael Pineda have been great this season with sub-3.00 ERAs. I think the Twins’ offensive explosion in their win over Cleveland on Wednesday may have snapped them out of their recent funk. I think this game will be close in the first five innings, but in the end, I like the Twins to earn the victory.
Pick: Minnesota Twins -135
Los Angeles Dodgers -125 Milwaukee Brewers +110 Total: 8.5
The Dodgers have not announced an official starter but Dustin May could be the probable guy. The Brewers’ Freddy Peralta has been great for Milwaukee with his 2-0 record and a 2.45 ERA. The Dodgers are struggling a bit as of late and this is where you have to strike on value alone. I like Milwaukee. UPDATE Edwin Uceta has been named the probable starter for the LA Dodgers.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +110
Baltimore Orioles +110 Oakland Athletics -130 Total: 8
Mike Fiers of the Oakland A’s will make his season debut on Friday night, and he had a 6-3 record with a 4.58 ERA in 2020. John Means is the starter for the Orioles and I think he and Baltimore hold the value on Friday. I will take the road dog with plus money, as Means is pitching too well to pass it up.
Pick: Baltimore Orioles +110
Colorado Rockies +100 Arizona Diamondbacks -120 Total: 8.5
The D-Backs’ Madison Bumgarner is coming off his two best starts of the year, but I do not think that warrants him and Arizona to be the favorites in this one. The Rockies’ Jon Gray has pitched well and although he has always been a ticking time bomb, I think he gets the job done on Friday at Chase Field.
Pick: Colorado Rockies +100
Los Angeles Angels -140 Seattle Mariners +120 Total: 8
The Mariners’ Chris Flexen has been excellent this season and the Mariners are playing great baseball. The Angels’ Andrew Heaney is pitching a lot better than his ERA suggests, as he has a 2.07 FIP with a 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings total. I think runs are hard to come by in this one, so I like the under.
Pick: Under 8 runs
San Francisco Giants +160 San Diego Padres -185 Total: 7.5
The Padres’ Yu Darvish has found a rhythm in San Diego and although the Giants’ Logan Webb has been decent, I do not see the Giants competing on Friday. I think the Padres do enough damage with the bats for Darvish and the back end of the bullpen to take care of the rest.
Pick: San Diego Padres -185
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