MLB Picks and Predictions for 4/30/21 - Free MLB Picks

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +100

Miami Marlins -130 Washington Nationals +120 Total: 8

The Marlins’ Pablo Lopez is coming off a bounce-back start against the Giants and I think the Marlins are plainly the better team in this matchup. The Nationals’ Joe Ross has a 4.64 ERA and a 5.71 FIP, so he will not be getting any of my money. 

Pick: Miami Marlins -130

Detroit Tigers +265 New York Yankees -330 Total: 7.5

There is no value in this game any way you slice it, as the Yankees are going to win and more than likely win by a few runs. With the Yankees' Gerrit Cole on the mound against the Tigers' Tarik Skubal, this makes for a complete mismatch. If you had to bet this game, I suggest taking the Yankees at -2.5 or -3.5 in an alternate run-line, but otherwise, I would stay away.

Pick:New York Yankees -2.5

New York Mets -140 Philadelphia Phillies +120 Total: 8.5

The Phillies’ Chase Anderson should not have a job in the majors as a starting pitcher. The Mets’ Marcus Stroman has a 3-1 record with a 2.25 ERA. Stroman is coming off his worst performance of the season against the Nationals, but I think he fares a lot better than Anderson here. I like the Mets on the money line. 

Pick: New York Mets -140

Atlanta Braves -126 Toronto Blue Jays +108 Total: 9.5

The Braves’ Drew Smyly and the Blue Jays’ Robbie Ray are two pitchers that I fade often. Ray’s ERA is very deceiving, as he has a 5.34 FIP with a major walk/home run problem. I expect both teams to score plenty of runs in this one, making the over a strong play here. 

Pick: Over 9.5 runs

Chicago Cubs +100 Cincinnati Reds -120 Total: 8.5

Both veterans in Chicago’s Jake Arrieta and Cincinnati’s Wade Miley have held down the fort this season with exceptional ERAs. Both teams are under .500 this season but I give the edge to the Reds and their lineup. This should be a tight game and series but I will lean Cincinnati’s way. 

Pick: Cincinnati Reds -120

Houston Astros -117 Tampa Bay Rays+107 Total: 8

The Rays’ bats are struggling too much at the moment for me too take a chance on them here. The Astros’ Lance McCullers Jr has a 3.90 FIP which suggests that he is pitching a bit better than his 4.58 ERA shows. The Rays’ Ryan Yarbrough is a bad matchup for this righty-heavy Astros lineup in my opinion. 

Pick: Houston Astros -117

Boston Red Sox -160 Texas Rangers -140 Total: 8.5

The Red Sox’s Nathan Eovaldi is a lot better than what we saw in his last start against the Mariners. I think he has a much stronger start against the Rangers on Friday and the Red Sox score more than enough on the Rangers’ Kohei Arihara and supporting bullpen. 

Pick: Boston Red Sox -160

Cleveland Indians -140 Chicago White Sox +120 Total: 7 

I think we are going to see a fantastic pitcher’s duel between the Indians’ Shane Bieber and the White Sox’s Dallas Keuchel. Both are former Cy Young winners and should both put on a show on Friday evening. Runs will be at a premium and I like the under. 

Pick: Under 7 runs

Kansas City Royals +115 Minnesota Twins -135 Total: 8

Both the Royals’ Brady Singer and the Twins’ Michael Pineda have been great this season with sub-3.00 ERAs. I think the Twins’ offensive explosion in their win over Cleveland on Wednesday may have snapped them out of their recent funk. I think this game will be close in the first five innings, but in the end, I like the Twins to earn the victory. 

Pick: Minnesota Twins -135

Los Angeles Dodgers -125 Milwaukee Brewers +110 Total: 8.5

The Dodgers have not announced an official starter but Dustin May could be the probable guy. The Brewers’ Freddy Peralta has been great for Milwaukee with his 2-0 record and a 2.45 ERA. The Dodgers are struggling a bit as of late and this is where you have to strike on value alone. I like Milwaukee. UPDATE Edwin Uceta has been named the probable starter for the LA Dodgers. 

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +110

Baltimore Orioles +110 Oakland Athletics -130 Total: 8

Mike Fiers of the Oakland A’s will make his season debut on Friday night, and he had a 6-3 record with a 4.58 ERA in 2020. John Means is the starter for the Orioles and I think he and Baltimore hold the value on Friday. I will take the road dog with plus money, as Means is pitching too well to pass it up. 

Pick: Baltimore Orioles +110

Colorado Rockies +100 Arizona Diamondbacks -120 Total: 8.5 

The D-Backs’ Madison Bumgarner is coming off his two best starts of the year, but I do not think that warrants him and Arizona to be the favorites in this one. The Rockies’ Jon Gray has pitched well and although he has always been a ticking time bomb, I think he gets the job done on Friday at Chase Field. 

Pick: Colorado Rockies +100 

Los Angeles Angels -140 Seattle Mariners +120 Total: 8

The Mariners’ Chris Flexen has been excellent this season and the Mariners are playing great baseball. The Angels’ Andrew Heaney is pitching a lot better than his ERA suggests, as he has a 2.07 FIP with a 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings total. I think runs are hard to come by in this one, so I like the under.

Pick: Under 8 runs

San Francisco Giants +160 San Diego Padres -185 Total: 7.5 

The Padres’ Yu Darvish has found a rhythm in San Diego and although the Giants’ Logan Webb has been decent, I do not see the Giants competing on Friday. I think the Padres do enough damage with the bats for Darvish and the back end of the bullpen to take care of the rest. 

Pick: San Diego Padres -185