New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 5 - 10/18/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
Houston Astros (112-58) at New York Yankees (107-61)
MLB Baseball: Friday, October 18, 2019 at 7:08 pm (Yankee Stadium)
Justin Verlander (22-7) (2.66) vs. James Paxton (15-6) (3.88)
The Line: New York Yankees -130 / Houston Astros +120 --- Over/Under: 8
The Houston Astros and the New York Yankees will meet up for Game 5 of their ALCS in MLB activity Friday.
New York jumped out to an early lead in this series with a 7-0 shutout in Game 1, but Houston came back to forge a 2-1 advantage with victories 3-2 in Game 2 and 4-1 in Game 3. On Thursday in a rain-postponed Game 4, Houston escaped some sticky situations and had a couple of big innings as the Yankees bats continued to go silent. The Astros escaped with an 8-3 victory and a commanding 3-1 series lead. Houston will set up for the knockout blow here.
For Friday’s Game 5, the Astros will send out Justin Verlander in the start. Over 223.0 innings and a 21-6 record this year, Verlander put up a 2.58 ERA with 300 Ks and 42 BBs.
Over on the Yankees’ side, they’re going with James Paxton in the start Friday. Across 150.2 innings and a 15-6 record, Paxton put up a 3.82 ERA with 186 Ks and 55 walks this year.
The Astros are 51-20 in their last 71 Friday game sad 40-11 in their last 51 versus a left-handed starter. Houston is 4-1 in Verlander’s last five starts with four days’ rest and 4-1 in his last five versus the AL East.
Meanwhile, the Yankees are 22-10 in their last 32 Friday games and 6-0 in Paxton’s last six home starts. New York is 4-0 in Paxton’s last four Friday starts and 20-8 in his last 28 starts.
Verlander had a sketchy outing in the Tampa series, with four earned on seven hits in 3.2 innings on October 8. Aside from that, he’s been solid in the postseason with a combined 13.2 innings, six hits and two earned. New York got to him a little bit in his start this series but he still managed a two-earned quality start over 6.2 innings and the Yankees didn’t score otherwise. Verlander will be fine here.
Paxton posted 2.1 innings with one earned, four hits and two walks in that same game, which isn’t the strongest start in the world. He’s given up four earned in 7.0 innings on nine hits this postseason.
Considering what Verlander and the Astros are capable of, and looking at the line, this seems like a good spot to take Houston.