New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros - 10/18/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros - 10/18/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Astros (112-58) at New York Yankees (107-61)

MLB Baseball: Friday, October 18, 2019 at 7:08 pm (Yankee Stadium)

Justin Verlander (22-7) (2.66) vs. James Paxton (15-6) (3.88)

The Line: New York Yankees -135 / Houston Astros +115 --- Over/Under: 7.5

TV: FS-1

The Houston Astros and the New York Yankees meet in game five of the ALCS from Yankee Stadium in MLB action on Friday night.

The Houston Astros will look to close out the series and head to the World Series after going up 3-1 in the series with an 8-3 win in game four on Thursday. George Springer and Carlos Correa each had a three-run home run while Michael Brantley went 2 for 4 with an RBI in the win. Alex Bregman added a double while Josh Reddick, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve each had a base knock to finish off Houston’s offense as a team in the victory. Zack Greinke allowed just one run on three hits while walking four and striking out five over 4.1 innings of work, not factoring in the decision while Ryan Pressly picked up the win in relief. Justin Verlander will start game five and is 1-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 20 strikeouts this postseason. In his career, Verlander has a 14-8 record with a 3.18 ERA and 187 strikeouts in the playoffs.

The New York Yankees will look to salvage a win and stay alive for another day after dropping game four on Thursday. Gary Sanchez had a two-run home run while Brett Gardner added an RBI to finish off the Yankees’ scoring as a team in the losing effort. DJ LeMahieu went 2 for 4 with a double while Aaron Hicks and Didi Gregorius each had a base hit as New York cranked out just five hits as a team in the loss. Masahiro Tanaka ended up with the loss after allowing four runs, three earned, on four hits over five innings of work, falling to 1-1 this postseason with the defeat. James Paxton will start this game and is 0-0 with a 5.14 ERA and 11 strikeouts this postseason.

Houston is 30-9 in Verlander’s last 39 road starts and 40-11 in their last 51 games against a left-handed starter while the under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against the AL East. New York is 1-5 in their last 6 games against the AL West and 54-19 in their last 73 home games while the under is 4-1 in their last 5 playoff games. Houston is 4-0 in Verlander’s last 4 starts against the Yankees.

I understand the Yankees being favored because they need this win to stay alive. However, the Astros have been the better team in the last three games, including both games at Yankee Stadium and for the most part, it hasn’t really been close. Paxton still hasn’t lost a start since the end of July, but he went just 2.1 innings against Houston last time out. Bottom line is we’re getting plus money with the better team with one of their best pitchers on the mound in Verlander, so right or wrong, the value is with Houston in a big way on Friday and I’m all over it as I see Houston going back to the World Series.

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Chris’s Pick Houston +115

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.