New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros - 10/17/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros - 10/17/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Astros (111-58) at New York Yankees (107-60)

MLB Baseball: Thursday, October 17, 2019 at 8:08 pm (Yankee Stadium)

Zack Greinke vs. Masahiro Tanaka

The Line: New York Yankees -110 / Houston Astros +100 --- Over/Under: 9

TV: FS1

The Houston Astros and New York Yankees meet Thursday in game four of the ALCS at Yankee Stadium. 

The Houston Astros can all but put this series to bed with a victory here and a 3-1 lead. The Astros continue to rely on a pitching staff that’s allowed three runs in their last two games and two or less runs in five of their eight postseason games. The Houston Astros have won 14 straight games when allowing three or less runs. Jose Altuve leads the Astros with 12 hits and six RBI while Alex Bregman and Michael Brantley have combined for 15 hits and four RBI. Jose Urquidy gets the ball, and he was 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA and 40 strikeouts this season. Urquidy is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and three strikeout in his postseason career. 

The New York Yankees need a win here to even up the series and improve their odds of advancing. The Yankees batting order has gone cold the last two games and didn’t show up at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, which is rare for this club. The New York Yankees haven’t lost three straight games since August 20-22. Gleyber Torres leads the Yankees with nine hits and nine RBI while Aaron Judge and DJ LeMahieu have combined for 13 hits and six RBI. J.A. Happ gets the ball, and he was 12-8 with a 4.91 ERA and 140 strikeouts this season. Happ is 1-3 with a 5.48 ERA and 24 strikeouts in his postseason career. 

The Astros are 1-5 in their last 6 League Championship games, 8-3 in their last 11 road games and 52-21 in their last 73 overall. The Yankees are 13-4 in their last 17 Wednesday games, 54-17 in their last 71 home games and 5-13 in their last 18 League Championship games. The Astros are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in New York. The over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York. The under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 Wednesday games. The under is 10-4-1 in Astros last 15 road games.

There's a good chance this game is rained out and we end up having actual starters on Thursday. Assuming that doesn't happen and both teams have a bullpen game, you have to give the edge to the Yankees, the team with the better bullpen and a team that's used to playing these style games. The New York Yankees had a lot of success in openers this season and have far more reliable arms to throw out there. This is also a must-win for the Yankees if they have any hope of winning this series, and its only a matter of time before that offense breaks out this two-game funk. Give me the Yankees to even things up. 

Update: Game 4 was rained out as expected, so Tanaka will get the ball against Greinke. The Yankees hit Greinke hard in game one and Tanaka has been one of the better postseason pitchers over the last several years. I'm still backing the Yankees to even things up.

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Randy’s Pick New York Yankees -110

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.