Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees - 10/13/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees - 10/13/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

New York Yankees (107-59) at Houston Astros (110-58)

MLB Baseball: Sunday, October 13, 2019 at 8:08 pm (Minute Maid Park)

James Paxton (15-6) (3.88) vs. Justin Verlander (22-7) (2.66)

The Line: Houston Astros -160 / New York Yankees +144 --- Over/Under: 7.5

TV: FS1

The New York Yankees and Houston Astros meet Sunday in game two of the ALCS at Minute Maid Park.

The New York Yankees can take complete control of this series with a win and a 2-0 lead heading back to the Bronx. The Yankees got a gem from their pitching staff and the offense showed up as well in game one, scoring seven runs and producing 13 hits. The New York Yankees have won 24 of their last 28 games when scoring four or more runs. DJ LeMahieu leads the Yankees with four hits and four RBI while Edwin Encarnacion and Gleyber Torres have combined for nine hits and six RBI. James Paxton gets the ball, and he was 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and 186 strikeouts this season. Paxton is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA and eight strikeouts in his postseason career.

The Houston Astros need a victory here to even things up and improve their chances of advancing. The Astros just couldn’t get anything going offensively, and they’ve now been held to three or less runs in four of their last five games. The Houston Astros have split their last eight games when scoring three or less runs. Jose Altuve leads the Astros with seven hits and five RBI while Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel have combined for nine hits and five RBI. Justin Verlander gets the ball, and he was 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and 300 strikeouts this season. Verlander is 14-8 with a 3.20 ERA and 180 strikeouts in his postseason career.

The Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 Sunday games, 6-0 in Paxtons last 6 road starts and 20-7 in Paxtons last 27 starts. The Astros are 21-5 in their last 26 Sunday games, 8-3 in Verlanders last 11 starts with 4 days of rest and 36-16 in Verlanders last 52 starts. The Astros are 5-1 in Verlanders last 6 starts vs. Yankees. The Yankees are 3-10 in the last 13 meetings in Houston. The under is 13-5-1 in Verlanders last 19 home starts. The over is 18-7-1 in Paxtons last 26 starts overall.

Paxton has allowed 19 hits and six earned runs in his last 30.1 innings, and he has a 4.33 ERA and .274 allowed batting average on the road. Verlander has allowed 31 hits and 13 earned runs in his last 49.2 innings, and he has a 2.34 ERA and .180 allowed batting average at home. As great as Verlander has been this season, he doesn't face the Yankees lineup everyday, and as long as that NYY lineup stays patient and forces guys to throw strikes, they crush. The Houston Astros offense has also gone cold and Verlander can give up the long ball more than people like to admit. I said in my game one write up that I have the Yanks winning this series, so I'm backing them whenever I can get them at plus money. I'll double dip. 

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Randy’s Pick New York Yankees +144

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.