Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees - 10/12/19 MLB ALCS Game 1 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees - 10/12/19 MLB ALCS Game 1 Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

New York Yankees (106-59) at Houston Astros (110-57)

MLB Baseball: Saturday, October 12, 2019 at 8:08 pm (Minute Maid Park)

Masahiro Tanaka vs. Zack Greinke

The Line: Houston Astros -155 / New York Yankees +145 --- Over/Under: 8.5

TV: FOX

The New York Yankees and Houston Astros meet Saturday in game one of the ALCS at Minute Maid Park.

The New York Yankees are in the ALCS for the second time in three years after sweeping the Minnesota Twins. The Yankees haven’t played a game since Monday and come into this series red hot offensively. The New York Yankees scored 23 runs in their three-game series and have won 23 of their last 27 games when scoring four or more runs. If the Yankees offense continues to produce the way it has up to this point, they’ll be World Series bound. Gleyber Torres leads the Yankees with five hits and four RBI while DJ LeMahieu and Edwin Encarnacion have combined for eight hits and six RBI. Masahiro Tanaka gets the ball, and he was 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA and 149 strikeouts this season. Tanaka is 4-2 with a 1.54 ERA and 32 strikeouts in his postseason career. 

The Houston Astros are coming off a five-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays and are being thrown back into a new series with just one day of rest. The Astros offense has been hit or miss up to this point, but it’s the pitching staff that’s dominated. In three playoff home games, the Astros have allowed four runs and have 37 strikeouts. The Houston Astros have won 12 straight games when allowing three or less runs. Yordan Alvarez leads the Astros with six hits and one RBI while Yuli Gurriel and Alex Bregman have combined for 10 hits and four RBI. Zack Greinke gets the ball, and he was 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA and 187 strikeouts this season. Greinke is 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA and 64 strikeouts in his postseason career. 

The Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 games following an off day, 41-17 in their last 58 Saturday games and 65-32 in their last 97 overall. The Astros are 40-12 in their last 52 home games, 38-14 in their last 52 games following an off day and 51-20 in their last 71 overall. The Yankees are 3-10 in the last 13 meetings in Houston. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The over is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 home games. The under is 18-7-1 in Yankees last 26 games following an off day.

Tanaka has allowed 35 hits and 13 earned runs in his last 30 innings, and he has a 6.05 ERA and .287 allowed batting average on the road. Greinke has allowed 30 hits and 15 runs in his last 35 innings, and he has a 3.27 ERA and .247 allowed batting average at home. One would have thought the Yankees would go with Tanaka in gam three given that he hasn't been great on the road. However, like most of the Yankees starting staff, Tanaka has been better these last two months, and he's proven to be highly impressive in the playoffs. I have the Yankees winning this series, so whenever I can get them at plus money, I'm taking it. We're getting the better postseason pitcher and the more rested team with the better bullpen at plus money. I can't turn that down. 

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Randy’s Pick New York Yankees +145

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.