Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays - 10/10/19 MLB ALDS Game 5 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays - 10/10/19 MLB ALDS Game 5 Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay Rays (98-68) at Houston Astros (109-56)

MLB Baseball: Thursday, October 10, 2019 at 7:07 pm (Minute Maid Park)

Tyler Glasnow vs. Gerrit Cole

The Line: Houston Astros -270 / Tampa Bay Rays +239 --- Over/Under: 7

TV: FS1

The Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros meet Thursday in game five of the ALDS at Minute Maid Park.

The Tampa Bay Rays will advance to their first ALCS since 2008 when they made the World Series. The Rays put together their best game of the postseason with a 4-1 win in game four, being patient at the plate and having the bullpen shutdown a solid Astros lineup. The Tampa Bay Rays have won 22 of their last 26 games when allowing four or less runs. Tommy Pham leads the Rays with seven hits and two RBI while Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Lowe have combined for seven hits and four RBI. Tyler Glasnow gets the ball, and he was 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 76 strikeouts this season. Glasnow is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA and five strikeouts in his postseason career.

The Houston Astros have another chance to advance to their third straight ALCS. The Astros just didn’t have it in their game four loss and now the offense has been held to a combined seven runs in their last 27 innings. The Houston Astros have split their last eight games when scoring less than six runs. Jose Altuve leads the Astros with five hits and three RBI while Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Gurriel have combined for 11 hits and four RBI. Gerrit Cole gets the ball, and he was 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 326 strikeouts this season. Cole is 3-3 with a 2.95 ERA and 46 strikeouts in his postseason career.

The Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day, 36-16 in their last 52 games following a win and 1-4 in their last 5 road games. The Astros are 8-3 in their last 11 games following a loss, 37-14 in their last 51 games following an off day and 2-6 in their last 8 playoff games. The Rays are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Houston. The over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. The over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games. The under is 7-3 in Rays last 10 overall.

Glasnow has allowed nine hits and four runs in his last 16.2 innings, and he has a 0.55 ERA and .142 allowed batting average on the road. Cole has allowed 24 hits and five earned runs in his last 49.2 innings, and he has a 2.63 ERA and .175 allowed batting average at home. The Houston Astros should obviously be favored at home and Cole made the Rays look silly in game two, striking out 15 batters in 7.2 innings. However, I said that pitchers have an edge when seeing the same pitcher twice in a short span, which is why I sided with the Rays in game four as +200 underdogs, and Verlander got roughed up. Glasnow is also a somebody who could win a CY Young in the near future, so getting more than two times your money with him has value. The bottom line is anything can happen in an elimination game and you never know how these guys are going to handle nerves. The Rays also have the edge bullpen wise if this game is tight late. Give me the Rays and the big payout.

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Randy’s Pick Tampa Bay Rays +239

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.