St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves - 10/9/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves - 10/9/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

St. Louis Cardinals (93-73) at Atlanta Braves (99-67)

MLB Baseball: Wednesday, October 9, 2019 at 5:02 pm (SunTrust Park)

Jack Flaherty vs. Mike Foltynewicz

The Line: Atlanta Braves -103 / St. Louis Cardinals -107 --- Over/Under: 8

TV: TBS

The St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves meet Wednesday in game five of the NLDS at SunTrust Park.

The St. Louis Cardinals will advance to their first NLCS since 2014 with a victory here. The Cardinals offense woke up in their game four victory and they seem to have flair for the dramatics, seeming to do their best work late in games when it looks like they’re sleepwalking before then. The St. Louis Cardinals have won eight of their last 10 games when scoring four or more runs. Marcell Ozuna leads the Cardinals with eight hits and four RBI while Paul Goldschmidt and Tommy Edman have combined for 11 hits and two RBI. Jack Flaherty gets the ball, and he was 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA and 231 strikeouts this season. Flaherty is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and eight strikeouts in his postseason career.

The Atlanta Braves will advance to their first NLCS since 2001 with a victory here. The Braves are coming off a tough 10 innings loss in game four, but they have to like the position they’re in, especially having chances to win game one and four. The Atlanta Braves have split their last eight games when scoring four or more runs. Ronald Acuna Jr. leads the Braves with eight hits and two RBI while Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson have combined for 11 hits and five RBI. Mike Foltynewicz gets the ball, and he was 8-6 with a 4.54 ERA and 105 strikeouts this season. Foltynewicz is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA and 17 strikeouts in his career against the Braves.

The Cardinals are 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win, 7-16 in their last 23 games following an off day and 1-7 in their last 8 playoff road games. The Braves are 8-18 in their last 26 playoff home games, 1-4 in their last 5 games following an off day and 0-5 in their last 5 during game 5 of a series. The Cardinals are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Atlanta. The under is 11-4 in Braves last 15 home games. The over is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 overall.

Flaherty has allowed 25 hits and seven runs in his last 51 innings, and he has a 3.13 ERA and .214 allowed batting average on the road. Foltynewicz has allowed 18 hits and five runs in his last 37 innings, and he has a 4.58 ERA and .246 allowed batting average at home. Flaherty has been lights out since August, and he gave the Cards seven solid innings against these Braves earlier but wasn't provided a single run of support. Foltynewicz dominated the Cardinals through seven innings earlier in this series, so while his numbers haven't been great at home, that's encouraging. I was going to side with the Cardinals because they're the more experienced team, and I think the Braves sometimes show their youth a bit much and come up small under pressure. However, we're getting the home team and an actual cheaper price, so that's where I see the value. The Braves make the NLCS for the first time in nearly two decades. 

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Randy’s Pick Atlanta Braves -103

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.