Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - 10/8/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - 10/8/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Astros (109-55) at Tampa Bay Rays (97-68)

MLB Baseball: Tuesday, October 8, 2019 at 8:07 pm (Tropicana Field)

Justin Verlander (22-6) (2.54) vs. Diego Castillo

The Line: Tampa Bay Rays +200 / Houston Astros -244 --- Over/Under: 7.5

TV: FS1

The Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays meet Tuesday in game four of the ALDS at Tropicana Field.

The Houston Astros have another cache to advance to the ALCS with a victory here. The Astros pitching staff finally had a poor performance this postseason, allowing 10 runs and 12 hits, and they were out of game three pretty much by the fourth inning. The Houston Astros have lost five of their last eight games when allowing four or more runs. Offensively, Jose Altuve leads the Astros with four hits and three RBI while Yuli Gurriel and Carlos Correa have combined for eight hits and four RBI. Justin Verlander gets the ball, and he was 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and 300 strikeouts this season. Verlander is 14-7 with a 3.05 ERA and 175 strikeouts in his postseason career.

The Tampa Bay Rays need another win to save their season and force a game five on Thursday. The Rays offense came to life in Monday’s victory, and they’re the type of team that usually lives off of momentum, so they have to be feeling good heading into this contest. The Tampa Bay Rays have won 21 of their last 27 games when scoring three or more runs. Tommy Pham leads the Rays with four hits and one RBI while Austin Meadows and Kevin Kiermaier have combined for five hits and six RBI. Diego Castillo gets the ball, and he was 5-8 with a 3.41 ERA and 81 strikeouts this season. Castillo is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and four strikeouts in his postseason career.

The Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 during game 4 of a series, 50-18 in their last 68 overall and 35-17 in their last 52 Tuesday games. The Rays are 7-2 in their last 9 during game 4 of a series, 21-7 in their last 28 home games and 2-6 in their last 8 playoff home games. The Astros are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Tampa Bay and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. The under is 6-2 in Rays last 8 overall. The under is 12-1-3 in Astros last 16 on astroturf.

Verlander has allowed 24 hits and nine runs in his last 46 innings, and he has a 2.82 ERA and .164 allowed batting average on the road. Castillo has allowed nine hits and two runs in his last 18.1 innings, and he has a 3.38 ERA and .208 allowed batting average at home. This is obviously a massive pitching advantage for the Astros, as they have one of the top pitchers in baseball going, and the Rays are going to throw out an opener and get whacky with their season on the line. The plan is to find a way to steal another one and throw out a rested Tyler Glasnow for game five. Either way, I'm going to take a shot with the Rays and the big plus money. Hitters always do better when they see the same pitcher twice in a short span, and they just saw seven innings of Verlander on Friday. This is also a day earlier than expected and pitchers are usually creatures of habit, so who knows. Give me the Rays and the big potential payout. 

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Randy’s Pick Tampa Bay Rays +200

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.