Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - 10/7/19 MLB ALDS Game 3 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - 10/7/19 MLB ALDS Game 3 Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Astros (108-55) at Tampa Bay Rays (97-67)

MLB Baseball: Monday, October 7, 2019 at 1:05 pm (Tropicana Field)

Zack Greinke (18-5) (3.06) vs. Charlie Morton (17-6) (2.97)

The Line: Tampa Bay Rays / Houston Astros --- Over/Under:

TV: MLBN

The Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays meet Tuesday in game three of the ALDS at Tropicana Field. 

The Houston Astros can advance to their third straight ALCS with a victory here. The Astros pitching has simply shutdown the Rays in this series, allowing just three runs and striking out 22 batters. The Astros entered the postseason as the World Series favorites because of their starting pitching, and so far so good. The Houston Astros have won 11 straight games when allowing three or less runs. Alex Bregman leads the Astros with four hits and one RBI while Yuli Gurriel and Carlos Correa have combined for six hits and two RBI. Zack Greinke gets the ball, and he was 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA and 187 strikeouts this season. Greinke is 3-4 with a 4.03 ERA and 59 strikeouts in his postseason career.

The Tampa Bay Rays need a win here to save their season and force a game four on Tuesday. The Rays need to find some offense quickly if this series is going to turnaround, and it would certainly help if guys stopped chasing out of the strike zone. The Rays pitching staff has lived up to the hype, but that clearly can only take you so far. The Tampa Bay Rays have lost seven of their last 10 games when scoring under five runs. Tommy Pham leads the Rays with three hits while Austin Meadows and Kevin Kiermaier have combined for three hits and one RBI. Charlie Morton gets the ball, and he was 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 240 strikeouts this season. Morton is 3-2 with a 3.96 ERA and 35 strikeouts in his postseason career.

Will update with trends once they're released. 

Greinke has allowed 25 hits and nine runs in his last 31.1 innings, and he has a 2.64 ERA and .211 allowed batting average on the road. Morton has allowed 26 hits and nine earned runs in his last 34.2 innings, and he has a 2.59 ERA and .194 allowed batting average at home. Morton was solid in the wild card game against the Oakland A's, and he hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 11 innings. Morton is even better at home where he's been extremely tough to hit. There's reason to consider the Rays here, but it's tough for me to back this team based on what we've seen offensively. The Rays chase way too much and can't string any sort of offense together. I have no choice but to back the Astros. 

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Randy’s Pick Houston Astros

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.