Virginia vs SMU Prediction 10/17/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The Virginia Cavaliers and the SMU Mustangs meet in week 7 college football action from  Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs Prediction.

Virginia Cavaliers Recap

The Virginia Cavaliers come into this game looking to add on to their 28-25 win over Syracuse last time out to sit at 4-2 this season. After this game, Virginia will head home for a game against Duke.

Cavaliers Alternate Wins & Losses In 5 Straight

Beau Pribula has thrown for 1,080 yards, 13 touchdowns and an interception on 66.4% passing while Jekail Middlebrook leads Virginia in rushing with 337 yards and 3 touchdowns. Xay Davis sits behind Middlebrook on the ground with 199 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kameron Courtney leads the Cavaliers in receiving with 204 yards and 18 catches along with 2 touchdowns, while Da’Shawn Martin trails with 196 yards and 13 catches along with 5 touchdowns. On defense, Jacobie Henderson has a team-high 35 tackles while Virginia’s defense as a whole has combined for 20 sacks and an interception.

SMU Mustangs Recap

The SMU Mustangs come into this game looking to add on to their 25-16 win over Boston College last time out to sit at 4-1 this season. After this game, SMU will head home for a game against Cal.

Mustangs Win Back-To-Back Games

Kevin Jennings has thrown for 1,588 yards, 14 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 75.0% passing while Kendrick Raphael leads SMU in rushing with 418 yards and 6 touchdowns. Dramekco Green sits behind Raphael on the ground with 111 yards. Yamir Knight leads the Mustangs in receiving with 367 yards and 29 catches along with 2 touchdowns, while Jalen Cooper trails with 290 yards and 19 catches along with a touchdown. On defense, Tyren Polley Jr. has a team-high 30 tackles while SMU’s defense as a whole has combined for 17 sacks and 2 interceptions.

Virginia Cavaliers @ SMU Mustangs Betting Trends: Week 7

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won each of its last 15 games against conference opponents at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
• Virginia has lost 24 of its last 31 games against AP-ranked teams.
• Virginia has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games in October.
• The team ranked 24th in the AP Poll has covered the spread in four of its last five games.
• SMU has won the first quarter in six of its last seven October home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• SMU has won the first half in each of its last 21 games as a favorite in Texas.

Why the Virginia Cavaliers will win

• Virginia has won each of its last four games as an underdog.
• Virginia has covered the spread in each of its last seven October games as an underdog.
• SMU has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games as an AP-ranked team.
• Virginia has won the first quarter in each of its last four road games against conference opponents.
• The underdog has won the first half in three of Virginia’s last four games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of SMU’s last six games against conference opponents at Gerald J. Ford Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Six of Virginia’s last seven games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

SMU Mustangs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 7, Kevin Jennings ranks 8th amongst qualified players for passer rating (183.7) this season.

Virginia Cavaliers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 7, Brandyn Hillman ranks T4th amongst FBS players for interceptions (3) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• SMU ranks 1st among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (0.6).
• SMU ranks 2nd among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (+13.2).
• Virginia ranks T3rd among FBS teams for sacks this season (21.0).
• Virginia ranks 5th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+8.7).

Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs Prediction

I’m on SMU in this one. I get the case to be made for Virginia with one of the most experienced lines in the country. However, Virginia’s become a bit one dimensional offensively, and I just think SMU has too much firepower for Virginia to contend with here, especially with their inconsistencies in terms of their results. I’m looking for a big SMU here so give me the Mustangs.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: SMU -9.5