UTEP vs New Mexico Prediction 10/3/2026 Today’s College Football Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Dec 26, 2025; Phoenix, AZ, USA; New Mexico Lobos running back Scottre Humphrey (22) against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
UTEP Miners
New Mexico Lobos
Team Records
1-3
3-1
Spread
+23.5 -115
-23.5 -105
Moneyline
+1100
-2100
Total
Over 47.5 (-115)
Under 47.5 (-105)
Where
University Stadium (NM), Albuquerque, NM
When
Saturday, October 3, 2026
Time
04:00 PM EDT
TV
MW+
The UTEP Miners and the New Mexico Lobos meet in week 5 college football action from University Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a UTEP Miners vs. New Mexico Lobos Prediction.
UTEP Miners Recap
The UTEP Miners come into this game looking to rebound from their 33-7 loss at the hands of Oregon State last time out to sit at 1-3 this season. After this game, UTEP will head home for a game against Nevada.
Miners Drop Back-To-Back Games
EJ Colson Jr. has thrown for 496 yards, 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 66.2% passing while Tavorus Jones leads UTEP in rushing with 196 yards and 1 touchdown so far this season. Raymond Moore III sits behind Jones on the ground with 160 yards and 1 TD. Carver Cheeks leads the Miners in receiving with 143 yards and 10 catches along with 3 TDs, while Kam Thomas trails with 95 yards and 3 catches. On defense, Xavier Smith has a team-high 27 tackles while UTEP’s defense as a whole has combined for 4 sacks and 2 interceptions so far this season.
New Mexico Lobos Recap
The New Mexico Lobos come into this game looking to add on to their win over the rival New Mexico State Aggies to sit at 3-1 this season. After this game, New Mexico will head on the road for a game against the Hawaii Warriors.
Lobos Rebound From Loss To Oklahoma
Toa Fa’avae has thrown for 390 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions on 47.7% passing while Scottre Humphrey leads New Mexico in rushing with 285 yards and 5 touchdowns so far this season. Kiefer Sibley sits behind Humphrey on the ground with 197 yards and 2 TDs. Cade Keith leads the Lobos in receiving with 169 yards and 10 catches along with 1 TD, while Bailen George trails with 156 yards and 9 catches. On defense, Jaxton Eck has a team-high 20 tackles while New Mexico’s defense as a whole has combined for 12 sacks and 9 interceptions so far this season.
UTEP Miners @ New Mexico Lobos Betting Trends: Week 5
Why the New Mexico Lobos will win
New Mexico has won each of its last nine home games.
UTEP has lost each of its last 11 games as an underdog.
UTEP has failed to cover the spread in each of its last nine games as an underdog.
The favorite has covered the spread in 11 of UTEP’s last 12 games.
UTEP has lost the first half in each of its last 13 games as an underdog.
New Mexico has won the first quarter in each of its last five home games in October.
Why the UTEP Miners will win
New Mexico has lost 24 of its last 30 games against conference opponents at University Stadium.
New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games as a favorite against teams from Texas.
UTEP has covered the spread in 11 of its last 14 road games in October.
Total Points Facts
Each of UTEP’s last six games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of New Mexico’s last four home games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
New Mexico Lobos Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 5, Tavian Combs ranks T2nd amongst FBS players for interceptions (3) this season.
UTEP Miners Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 5, Carver Cheeks ranks T1st in the Mountain West Conference for receiving touchdowns (3) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
New Mexico ranks 1st among FBS teams for interceptions this season (9).
New Mexico ranks T4th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+10.8).
UTEP ranks 136th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (265.3).
UTEP ranks 3rd among FBS teams for sacks this season (16.0).
UTEP Miners vs. New Mexico Lobos Prediction
I’m on New Mexico here. I haven’t been able to trust UTEP’s game up to this point and I’m not really going to start now if I can help it. On the flipside, New Mexico’s looked strong this season, defeating inferior competition in blowout fashion along the way and their only stumble was a loss to Oklahoma in a game they could’ve won outright. I’ll back New Mexico in this one.
