Troy vs Utah State Prediction 9/26/2026 Today’s College Football Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Sep 19, 2026; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Troy Trojans quarterback Goose Crowder (9) warms up against the Missouri Tigers prior to the game at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Troy Trojans
Utah State Aggies
Team Records
2-1
0-3
Spread
+3 -112
-3 -108
Moneyline
+124
-148
Total
Over 47.5 (-102)
Under 47.5 (-118)
Where
Maverik Stadium, Logan, UT
When
Saturday, September 26, 2026
Time
07:30 PM EDT
TV
CBSSN
The Troy Trojans and the Utah State Aggies meet in week 4 college football action from Maverik Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Troy Trojans vs. Utah State Aggies Prediction.
Troy Trojans Recap
The Troy Trojans will be out to rebound from their 27-17 loss at the hands of Missouri last time out to sit at 2-1 this season. After this game, Troy will head home for a game against Southern Miss.
Trojans Looking To Rebound From First Loss
Goose Crowder has thrown for 596 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception on 53.0% passing while Gavin Griffin and Jaheim Merriweather lead Troy in rushing with 193 yards each, with Merriweather punching in 3 touchdowns so far this season. Jordan Lovett sits behind them on the ground with 73 yards and 0 TDs. TK Keyes leads the Trojans in receiving with 250 yards on 9 catches along with 3 touchdowns, while Howard Kinchen trails with 80 yards on 5 catches along with 1 touchdown. On defense, Justin Powe and Keno Jones share a team-high 19 total tackles, Donnie Smith leads the unit with 3 sacks, and TJ Thompson recorded 1 interception. Troy’s defense as a whole has combined for 8 sacks and 1 interception so far this season.
Utah State Aggies Recap
The Utah State Aggies come into this game looking to bounce back from a 33-0 loss at the hands of Utah last time out to sit at 0-3 this season. After this game, Utah State will head on the road for a game against Boise State.
Aggies Looking For First W
Grady Brosterhous has thrown for 393 yards, 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 52.9% passing while also leading Utah State in rushing with 133 rushing yards and 0 touchdowns so far this season. Javen Jacobs sits behind Brosterhous on the ground with 108 yards and 0 TDs. Eli Wood leads the Aggies in receiving with 190 yards on 16 catches along with 2 touchdowns, while Javon Robinson trails with 131 yards on 6 catches along with 1 touchdown. On defense, Brevin Hamblin has a team-high 20 total tackles, while James Jennette leads the team with 2 sacks. Utah State’s defense as a whole has combined for 5 sacks and 0 interceptions so far this season.
Troy Trojans @ Utah State Aggies Betting Trends: Week 4
Why the Utah State Aggies will win
Troy has lost eight of its last 10 road games in September.
Utah State has won 16 of its last 18 September games as a home favorite.
Utah State has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium.
Troy has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Utah State has won the first quarter in each of its last seven games at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium.
Utah State has won the first half in nine of its last 10 games at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium.
Why the Troy Trojans will win
Utah State has lost each of its last five games.
Troy has won four of its last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
Troy has covered the spread in each of its last four road games in September.
Utah State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games against opponents from the Sun Belt Conference.
Utah State has lost the first half in each of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
Each of Troy’s last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Six of Utah State’s last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Utah State Aggies Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 4, James Jennette ranks T1st in the Pac-12 Conference for sacks (2.0) this season.
Troy Trojans Player Prop Facts
Donnie Smith has recorded at least one sack in six consecutive games – longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 4.
Matchup/League Facts
Utah State ranks 137th among FBS teams for points per game this season (10.3).
Utah State is one of three FBS teams to score 20 points or less in every game this season.
Troy ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
Troy ranks T135th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (4.3).
Troy Trojans vs. Utah State Aggies Prediction
I’m on the under in this game. Utah State’s been in a lot of low-scoring games this season and I think this could be another one of those. On the other side this is a tough travel spot for Troy after the Missouri loss last week and I think this is just a sluggish effort on both sides. Give me the under.
