| MATCHUP | Troy Trojans | South Alabama Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| Spread | +3 -105 | -3 -115 |
| Moneyline | +130 | -155 |
| Total | Over 55.5 (-112) | Under 55.5 (-108) |
| Where | Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL | |
| When | Saturday, November 14, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
Troy vs. South Alabama Prediction
Troy isn’t a team I’m eager to back, as it has no offense to speak of and has scored 17 or fewer points in five of its last seven games. We also can’t forget Troy lost a few weeks ago to UL Monroe as a two-touchdown favorite. Troy is in rough shape and not a team I’m excited to back, especially on the road. Troy is also 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games. South Alabama isn’t lighting the world on fire with three straight losses, and its defense is awful. However, home field matters, where three of its four wins this season have come.
Also, South Alabama has some punch offensively, as it’s a top 50 team in total offense and scoring offense. We’re not being asked to lay anything crazy. This is a chance for South Alabama to get a rare win over Troy after losing 8 of its last 10 meetings. I’ll lay the field goal with South Alabama at home, but it’s a fade of Troy more than anything.
Troy Trojans Betting Preview
The Troy Trojans lost to LA Tech, beat James Madison, and they play Georgia Southern next. Troy has lost 5 of its last 7 games. Goose Crowder is completing 55.7 percent of his passes for 1,162 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Crowder has been sacked 11 times this season. TJ Keyes has 319 yards and 3 touchdowns on 14 catches. Noreel White has 286 yards on 20 catches. Howard Kinchen has 237 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18 catches.
The Troy Trojans’ ground game is averaging 177.6 yards per contest, and Gavin Griffin leads the way with 465 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Troy is allowing 26.2 points and 344.8 yards per game. Keno Jones leads Troy with 70 tackles. Donnie Smith has 8 sacks. Justin Powe has 3 interceptions.
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview
The South Alabama Jaguars lost to LA Tech and Louisiana, and they play Southern Miss next. South Alabama has lost 3 straight games. Jared Hollins is completing 52.6 percent of his passes for 1,195 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Hollins has been sacked 8 times this season. Brendan Jenkins has 552 yards and 3 touchdowns on 33 catches. Anthony Eager has 488 yards and 6 touchdowns on 23 catches. Jeremiah Jones-Thomas has 268 yards and 1 touchdown on 24 catches.
The South Alabama Jaguars’ ground game is averaging 207.1 yards per contest, and Keenan Phillips leads the way with 595 yards and 6 touchdowns. Defensively, South Alabama is allowing 32.2 points and 408.4 yards per game. Cole Blaylock leads South Alabama with 46 tackles. Xavious Anderson Jr. has 3 sacks. Damyrion Darby has 3 interceptions.
Why the South Alabama Jaguars will win
- South Alabama has won four of its last five home games.
- Troy has lost three of its last four games against conference opponents.
- Troy has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The home team has covered the spread in each of the last three games between Troy and South Alabama.
- The favorite has won the first half in each of Troy’s last five games.
Why the Troy Trojans will win
- Troy has won nine of its last 11 games against teams from Alabama.
- South Alabama has lost four of its last five home games against teams from Alabama.
- South Alabama has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five home games against teams from Alabama.
- The road team has covered the spread in each of Troy’s last three games.
- South Alabama has lost the first half in four of its last five home games against teams from Alabama.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Troy’s last five road games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of South Alabama’s last four November games at Hancock Whitney Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
South Alabama Jaguars Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Anthony Eager leads the Sun Belt Conference for yards per reception (21.2) this season.
Troy Trojans Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Donnie Smith ranks 10th among FBS players for sacks (8.0) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- South Alabama ranks T128th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (11.1).
- South Alabama ranks 14th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+5.9).
- Troy ranks 130th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (31.3).
- Troy ranks T9th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (72.7).