| MATCHUP | TCU Horned Frogs | Baylor Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Spread | +5.5 -110 | -5.5 -110 |
| Moneyline | +180 | -218 |
| Total | Over 48.5 (-108) | Under 48.5 (-112) |
| Where | McLane Stadium, Waco, TX | |
| When | Saturday, October 17, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | FS1 | |
The TCU Horned Frogs and the Baylor Bears meet in week 7 college football action from McLane Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a TCU Horned Frogs vs. Baylor Bears Prediction.
TCU Horned Frogs Recap
The TCU Horned Frogs come into this game looking to bounce back from a 17-10 loss at the hands of BYU last time out to sit at 2-3 this season. After this game, TCU will head home for a game against West Virginia.
Horned Frogs Drop Back-To-Back Games
Jaden Craig has thrown for 1,400 yards, 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 68.4% passing while Jeremy Payne leads TCU in rushing with 432 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jon Denman sits behind Payne on the ground with 76 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ed Small leads the Horned Frogs in receiving with 403 yards and 28 catches along with a touchdown, while Kari Ashley trails with 374 yards and 25 catches along with 4 touchdowns. On defense, Hudson Hooper has a team-high 27 tackles while TCU’s defense as a whole has combined for 10 sacks and 2 interceptions.
Baylor Bears Recap
The Baylor Bears come into this game looking to add on to their 55-19 win over Arizona State last time out to sit at 4-1 this season. After this game, Baylor will head on the road for a game against Kansas.
Bears Win 4 Straight
DJ Lagway has thrown for 860 yards, 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 53.4% passing while Dawson Pendergrass leads Baylor in rushing with 316 yards and a touchdown. Caden Knighten sits behind Pendergrass on the ground with 244 yards and 2 touchdowns. Gavin Freeman leads the Bears in receiving with 479 yards and 42 catches along with 2 touchdowns, while Louis Brown IV trails with 253 yards and 15 catches along with 3 touchdowns. On defense, Travion Barnes has a team-high 33 tackles while Baylor’s defense as a whole has combined for 18 sacks and 5 interceptions.
TCU Horned Frogs @ Baylor Bears Betting Trends: Week 7
Why the Baylor Bears will win
- Baylor has won each of its last four games.
- TCU has lost seven of its last eight October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- TCU has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Baylor has covered the spread in four of its last five games.
- Baylor has won the first half in each of its last four games.
Why the TCU Horned Frogs will win
- TCU has won each of its last four games against teams from Texas.
- TCU has covered the spread in five of its last six games in Texas.
- Baylor has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games in October.
- TCU has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against teams from Texas.
- TCU has won the first half in nine of its last 10 games against Baylor.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Baylor’s last seven October games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of TCU’s last five October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Baylor Bears Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 7, Palmer Williams ranks 1st amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (52.8) this season.
TCU Horned Frogs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 7, Kari Ashley leads TCU for touchdowns (4) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Baylor ranks T4th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (1.2).
- Baylor ranks 5th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (11.1).
- TCU ranks T1st among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (4.0).
- TCU ranks T3rd among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (70).
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Baylor Bears Prediction
I’m on Baylor here. I was high on TCU coming into the season and there’s no denying that this team just has not been what I thought they would be as Craig hasn’t made the leap to the FBS level like I hoped he would. The Bears have looked a lot better than I would’ve given them credit for when they announced DJ Lagway as a starter as I still have PTSD from his time with Florida, but I look for Lagway to get it done and for the Bears to take care of business at home. Give me Baylor.