Ohio State vs Iowa Prediction 10/3/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate an Ohio State vs Iowa prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 3rd at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 5 matchup. 

Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview

The Ohio State Buckeyes are 3-1 (1-0) this season after they defeated Illinois by a score of 42-19 in their last game. Ohio State led 28-10 at halftime and they scored 14 points in the fourth quarter to seal the win, but they failed to cover. The Buckeyes out gained Illinois by a total of 518-462, went 8-12 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at zero in the game. Julian Sayin threw for 367 yards and four touchdowns, while Jeremiah Smith caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four scores. Ja’Kobi Jackson rushed 10 times for 56 yards and one score in the win. 

Prior to that game, Ohio State defeated Kent State by a score of 59-3, but lost to Texas by a score of 24-23 before that. The Buckeyes have scored 45.0 points per game with 365.3 passing yards and 156.8 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 12.3 points against per game this season. Julian Sayin has thrown for 1,206 yards with 10 touchdowns and one interception, while Jeremiah Smith has 33 receptions for 617 yards and seven scores this season. 

Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 4-0 (1-0) this year after they defeated Michigan by a score of 20-19 last week. Iowa trailed 10-7 at halftime and 19-14 in the fourth quarter, but they scored on the last play of the game to get the win. The Hawkeyes were out gained by a total of 429-285, went 6-14 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Hank Brown threw for 227 yards and two touchdowns, while Reece Vander Zee caught five passes for 66 yards and two scores. Kamari Moulton rushed 13 times for 44 yards in the win. 

Prior to that game, Iowa defeated Northern Iowa by a score of 55-0 and Iowa State by a score of 16-13. The Hawkeyes have scored 32.8 points per game with 213.5 passing yards and 215.5 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 8.0 points against per game this season. Hank Brown has thrown for 700 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions, while Kamari Moulton has rushed 39 times for 284 yards and two scores this year. 

Why the Iowa Hawkeyes will win

• The team ranked 14th in the AP Poll has won nine of its last 10 games.
• Ohio State has lost three of its last four games as a top-5 AP-ranked team.
• Iowa has covered the spread in each of its last five games against AP-ranked teams.
• The team ranked 5th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games.

Why the Ohio State Buckeyes will win

• Ohio State has won 21 of its last 22 October games as a top-10 AP-ranked team.
• Iowa has lost each of its last seven games against top-10 AP-ranked teams.
• Iowa has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven October games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.
• Ohio State has covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 games against AP-ranked teams.
• Iowa has lost the first half in each of its last seven games as an AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Ohio State’s last six games against AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Eight of Iowa’s last nine October games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Iowa Hawkeyes Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Hank Brown ranks 1st in the Big Ten Conference amongst qualified players for sack percentage (2.0%) this season.

Ohio State Buckeyes Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Jeremiah Smith ranks T1st amongst FBS players for receiving touchdowns (7) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Two of Iowa’s four games this season have been decided by a margin of three points or less – equal-most amongst FBS teams.
• Iowa ranks T2nd among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (46).
• Ohio State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 20+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
• Ohio State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team this season (2).

Ohio State vs Iowa Prediction 

Iowa comes into this matchup after stealing a win against Michigan last week, but they were severely out gained and will need to find more offense here. The Hawkeyes have a very good defense, but they have scored just 36 points in two games against power four teams. Ohio State beat Illinois last week and they have scored 42+ points in three of their last four games, but their defense has shown some weakness. The Buckeyes have way more talent than Iowa and I expect them to pull away in the second half for the cover.

David Racey's Pick: Ohio State -14.5