NC State vs Vanderbilt Prediction 9/19/2026 Today’s College Football Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Sep 11, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; NC State Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey (11) celebrates a touchdown during the first half of the game against Richmond Spiders at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
NC State Wolfpack
Vanderbilt Commodores
Team Records
1-1
2-0
Spread
+3 -102
-3 -118
Moneyline
+136
-162
Total
Over 50.5 (-112)
Under 50.5 (-108)
Where
FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
When
Saturday, September 19, 2026
Time
12:45 PM EDT
TV
SEC Network
The NC State Wolfpack and the Vanderbilt Commodores meet in week 3 college football action from FirstBank Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an NC State Wolfpack vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction.
NC State Wolfpack Recap
The NC State Wolfpack come into this game looking to add on to their 73-0 blowout win over Richmond last time out to sit at 1-1 this season. After this game, NC State will head home for a game against App State.
NC State Looking To Add On To First Win
CJ Bailey has thrown for 365 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception on 62.5% passing while Jayden Scott leads the Wolfpack in rushing with 148 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns so far this season. Will Wilson has 83 yards and 4 TDs while Keenan Jackson leads NC State in receiving with 129 receiving yards and 6 catches along with 0 touchdowns so far this season. On defense, Popo Aguirre has a team-high 21 total tackles while Elijah Satchell and Adrian Farrow lead the team with 1 sack each, and NC State’s defense as a whole has combined for 3 sacks and 1 interception so far this season.
Vanderbilt Commodores Recap
The Vanderbilt Commodores come into this game looking to add on to their 35-26 win over Delaware last time out to improve to 2-0 on the year. After this game, Vanderbilt will head on the road for a game against Auburn.
Commodores Looking To Stay Unbeaten At Home
Jared Curtis has thrown for 270 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions on 67.7% passing while Sedrick Alexander leads the Commodores in rushing with 99 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns so far this season. Makhilyn Young has 62 rushing yards and 0 TDs while Junior Sherrill leads Vanderbilt in receiving with 164 receiving yards and 9 catches along with 0 touchdowns while Jayvontay Conner leads the team with 10 catches along with 117 receiving yards and 0 touchdowns so far this season. On defense, Nick Rinaldi and CJ Heard are tied with a team-high 13 total tackles each while Nick Rinaldi leads the team with 2.5 sacks, and Vanderbilt’s defense as a whole has combined for 11 sacks and 2 interceptions so far this season.
NC State Wolfpack @ Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Trends: Week 3
Why the Vanderbilt Commodores will win
Vanderbilt has won each of its last 10 games against non-conference opponents at FirstBank Stadium.
NC State has lost each of its last five games against opponents from the Southeastern Conference.
NC State has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine road games in September.
The favorite has covered the spread in each of NC State’s last four games.
NC State has lost the first half in each of its last six road games.
Why the NC State Wolfpack will win
NC State has won 12 of its last 15 September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Vanderbilt has lost three of its last four games against teams from North Carolina.
Vanderbilt has failed to cover the spread in 15 of its last 17 home games in September.
The underdog has covered the spread in each of Vanderbilt’s last four games.
NC State has won the first half in four of its last five games.
NC State has won the first quarter in four of its last five games.
Total Points Facts
Each of Vanderbilt’s last seven games against teams from North Carolina have gone OVER the total points line.
Seven of NC State’s last eight September games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.
Vanderbilt Commodores Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 3, Tyler Ebel ranks 8th amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (49.7) this season.
NC State Wolfpack Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 3, Will Wilson ranks T5th amongst FBS players for rushing touchdowns (4) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Vanderbilt ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
Vanderbilt ranks T8th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+13.5).
NC State ranks T7th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (115.5).
NC State ranks T17th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (252.0).
NC State Wolfpack vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction
I’m on NC State and the points in this one. I get why Vandy is favored at home, but the Commodores are a team I much prefer to back in the underdog role and not so much when I’m expected to lay points with them. NC State woke up after that sluggish showing against Virginia to start the year and getting this line up over a field goal I think is a big deal here. Give me NC State and the points here.
