Navy vs Air Force Prediction 10/3/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Navy vs Air Force prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 3rd at Falcon Stadium in USAF Academy, Colorado. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 5 matchup. 

Navy Midshipmen Betting Preview

The Navy Midshipmen are 1-2 this season after they lost to UAB by a score of 24-20 last Friday night. Navy trailed 17-13 at halftime, but they led 20-17 in the fourth, before allowing a touchdown with about 11 minutes left for the loss. The Midshipmen out gained UAB by a total of 353-290, went 7-15 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Jackson Gutierrez threw for 104 yards, while Vic Listorti caught one pass for 39 yards. Gutierrez also led the rushing attack with 34 carries for 134 yards and one score in the loss. 

Prior to that game, Navy lost to FAU by a score of 38-30, but did beat Towson by a score of 42-15 before that. The Midshipmen have scored 30.7 points per game with 90.7 passing yards and 333.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 25.7 points against per game this season. Braxton Woodson is the starting quarterback, but he is injured and may not play, so we could see Jackson Gutierrez under center once again. 

Air Force Falcons Betting Preview

The Air Force Falcons are 2-1 this year after they defeated Nevada in double overtime by a score of 36-33 last week. Air Force was tied 10-10 at halftime and they led 27-17 in the fourth, but they blew the lead in the last four minutes, before winning in overtime. The Falcons out gained Nevada by a total of 455-411, went 8-18 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Liam Szarka threw for 92 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Simon Kibbee caught two passes for 53 yards. Szarka also led the ground game with 33 carries for 171 yards and two scores in the win. 

Prior to that game, Air Force lost to North Dakota State by a score of 38-32, but did beat Duquesne by a score of 34-0 before that. The Falcons have scored 34.0 points per game with 96.7 passing yards and 333.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 23.7 points against per game this season. Liam Szarka has thrown for 214 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, while also rushing for 310 yards and five scores this year. 

Why the Air Force Falcons will win

• The favorite has won each of Air Force’s last six games.
• Navy has lost five of its last six games at Falcon Stadium.
• The favorite has covered the spread in five of Air Force’s last six games.
• Navy has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 11 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Navy has lost the first half in five of its last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the Navy Midshipmen will win

• Navy has won three of its last four games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Air Force has lost five of its last six games in October.
• Air Force has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven October games at Falcon Stadium.
• The underdog has covered the spread in six of Navy’s last seven games.
• Navy has won the first half in four of its last five October games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Navy’s last five October games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of Air Force’s last six October games as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.

Air Force Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Liam Szarka ranks T1st in the Mountain West Conference for rushing touchdowns (5) this season.

Navy Midshipmen Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, MarcAnthony Parker ranks T1st in the American Conference for sacks (4.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Air Force ranks T2nd among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (46).
• Air Force ranks 2nd among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (35:56).
• Navy ranks 3rd among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (332.3).
• Navy ranks 135th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (90.7).

Navy vs Air Force Prediction 

Navy comes into this matchup on a two game losing streak and the status of their starting QB is up in the air. The Midshipmen have lost both of their road games this year and they have allowed 62 points in those losses. Air Force bounced back with a win last week in overtime, but their defense is also a mess. The Falcons have allowed 71 points in their last two games, but I really like Szarka at quarterback. We know the pace of this game will be slow, but I like Air Force to cover at home.

David Racey's Pick: Air Force -3.5