Missouri State vs SMU Prediction 9/26/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

Andrew Jett

30 minutes ago

MATCHUP	Missouri State Bears	SMU Mustangs
Team Records	1-2	2-1
Spread	+34.5 -115	-34.5 -105
Moneyline	+4000	-50000
Total	Over 59.5 (-110)	Under 59.5 (-110)
Where	Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
When	Saturday, September 26, 2026
Time	09:00 PM EDT
TV	ACC Network

The Missouri State Bears and the SMU Mustangs meet Saturday in college football action from Gerald J Ford Stadium in University Park. Here’s a Missouri State vs SMU prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Missouri State vs SMU pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Missouri State Bears Betting Preview

This year the Bears kicked off their season with a matchup versus Texas A&M on the road. Missouri State ended up losing that difficult opener 50-0 after giving up 17 points in the fourth quarter alone. As for game two, Missouri State took on Lindenwood. The Bears didn’t have too many issues in that one, bagging 20 points in the second quarter alone in a 48-14 win.

Last weekend versus Marshall, the Bears were down 17-10 going into the second half. Missouri State ended up surrendering points in every quarter during a 30-24 loss. QB Skyler Locklear was 19-of-28 for 309 yards, two TDs and an interception. Ramone Green carried 15 times for 76 yards to lead the rushing attack for Missouri State in the losing effort.

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

Over on the SMU side, they played Florida State in their opener. The Mustangs were all tied up 17-17 heading into the fourth quarter in that one, then hit a 10-7 run for a rousing road victory 27-24. In game two versus UC Davis, SMU was able to keep it going. The Mustangs scored points in every quarter (including 28 in the second) during a blowout victory 56-10.

Matched up against Louisville last weekend the Mustangs managed to take a lead 17-14 into the locker room at halftime. SMU gave up 27 points in the next two quarters though, resulting in a 41-31 loss on the road. Kevin Jennings finished 24-of-35 for 222 yards, one TD and two picks. Kendrick Raphael did most of the offensive work with 197 yards and three scores off 24 carries.

Missouri State Bears @ SMU Mustangs Betting Trends: Week 4

SMU Mustangs Player Prop Facts

Heading into Week 4, Kevin Jennings ranks T6th amongst FBS players for passing touchdowns (9) this season.

Missouri State Bears Player Prop Facts

Heading into Week 4, Isaiah Myers ranks 17th amongst FBS players for receiving yards (296) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

SMU ranks 5th among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (+15.0).
SMU ranks 7th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (566.0).
Missouri State ranks T136th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-9.0).
Missouri State ranks T130th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (10.3).

Missouri State vs SMU Prediction

I’ll stay with SMU. The Mustangs were able to hang around with Louisville in their last outing but couldn’t pull off the road win. SMU ended up with 479 yards (257 rushing), 6.0 yards per play and 27 first downs but also had eight penalties for 82 yards and three turnovers. The defense gave up 442 yards (265 rushing) and 22 first downs but did hold the Cards to just 3-of-10 on third downs.

As for Missouri State, they notched 506 yards with 7.8 yards per play and 24 first downs in their loss to Marshall. The defense surrendered 464 yards (267 rushing) and 25 first downs on the other side. The 11 penalties for 87 yards didn’t help either. I could see Missouri State bagging a cover in this one if all goes well but I like SMU a little better.