Florida vs Texas Prediction 10/17/2026 Today’s College Football Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Oct 10, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators wide receiver TJ Abrams (4) runs with the ball against the South Carolina Gamecocks during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Florida Gators
Texas Longhorns
Team Records
4-2
4-1
Spread
+11.5 -112
-11.5 -108
Moneyline
+340
-440
Total
Over 51.5 (-110)
Under 51.5 (-110)
Where
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
When
Saturday, October 17, 2026
Time
12:00 PM EDT
TV
ABC
The Florida Gators and the Texas Longhorns meet in week 7 college football action from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns Prediction.
Florida Gators Recap
The Florida Gators come into this game looking to shake off their 38-19 loss at the hands of South Carolina last time out to sit at 4-2 this season. After this game, Florida will head on the road for a game against Georgia.
Gators Lose Back-To-Back Games
Aaron Philo has thrown for 1,341 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 70.5% passing while Jadan Baugh leads Florida in rushing with 672 yards and 12 touchdowns. Duke Clark sits behind Baugh on the ground with 265 yards and 3 touchdowns. Dallas Wilson leads the Gators in receiving with 376 yards and 26 catches along with 3 touchdowns, while Vernell Brown III trails with 271 yards and 17 catches along with 2 touchdowns. On defense, Myles Graham has a team-high 42 tackles while Florida’s defense as a whole has combined for 17 sacks and 4 interceptions.
Texas Longhorns Recap
The Texas Longhorns come into this game looking to bounce back from their 27-24 loss at the hands of Oklahoma in their last game to sit at 4-1 on the year. After this game, Texas will be at home for a game against Ole Miss.
Longhorns Looking To Shake Off Red River Loss
Arch Manning has thrown for 1,122 yards, 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 63.0% passing while Hollywood Smothers leads Texas in rushing with 237 yards and 2 touchdowns. Raleek Brown sits behind Smothers on the ground with 218 yards and 4 touchdowns. Cam Coleman leads the Longhorns in receiving with 318 yards and 17 catches along with 5 touchdowns, while Ryan Wingo trails with 296 yards and 21 catches along with 3 touchdowns. On defense, Rasheem Biles has a team-high 41 tackles while Texas’s defense as a whole has combined for 12 sacks and 5 interceptions.
Texas has won each of its last 22 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Florida has lost eight of its last nine October games against AP-ranked teams.
Florida has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games in October.
Texas has covered the spread in three of its last four home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Texas has won the first half in each of its last 16 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Texas has won the first quarter in each of its last 14 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Why the Florida Gators will win
Texas has lost three of its last four October games as a top-10 AP-ranked team.
Texas has failed to cover the spread in 14 of its last 15 October games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
The underdog has covered the spread in each of Texas’ last four games.
Florida has won the first half in three of its last four October games as an underdog.
Florida has won the first quarter in three of its last four October games as an underdog.
Total Points Facts
Each of Florida’s last six games against teams from Texas have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of Texas’ last six October games at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
Texas Longhorns Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 7, Colin Simmons ranks 1st amongst FBS players for sacks (9.5) this season.
Florida Gators Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 7, Jadan Baugh ranks T1st amongst FBS players for touchdowns (12) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Texas has overturned the largest 3rd quarter deficit to win a game this season – 20 points vs Ohio State.
Three of Texas’ five games this season have been decided by a margin of three points or less – equal-most amongst FBS teams.
Florida has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team this season (2).
Florida ranks 131st among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (268.7).
Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns Prediction
I’m on the under in this one. I don’t trust either offense in this game as Florida’s fallen off of a cliff in the last two weeks and against this Texas defense, I don’t expect improvements. On the other side, Arch Manning and this Texas offense have been average and this feels like a 24-17 kind of game. Give me the under here.
