| MATCHUP | California Golden Bears | UNLV Runnin Rebels |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Spread | +2.5 -102 | -2.5 -118 |
| Moneyline | +120 | -142 |
| Total | Over 53.5 (-110) | Under 53.5 (-110) |
| Where | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV | |
| When | Saturday, October 3, 2026 | |
| Time | 03:30 PM EDT | |
| TV | CBSSN | |
Cal Golden Bears Betting Preview
The Cal Golden Bears beat Wagner, lost to Clemson, and play Virginia Tech next. Cal has split its last 8 games. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 985 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Ian Strong and Chase Hendricks have combined for 482 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Adam Mohammed has 17 receptions.
The Cal Golden Bears ground game is averaging 101.5 yards per contest, and Adam Mohammed leads the way with 336 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Cal is allowing 23.5 points and 364.8 yards per game. Kingston Lopa leads the Cal Golden Bears with 27 tackles, Daniel Harris has 2 sacks, and Isaiah Crosby has 1 interception.
UNLV Rebels Betting Preview
The UNLV Rebels beat Akron, lost to North Texas, and they play North Dakota State next. The UNLV Rebels have lost 4 of their last 6 games. Jackson Arnold is completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 891 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Taz Reddicks and Taeshaun Lyons have combined for 356 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Jai’Den Thomas has 10 receptions.
The UNLV Rebels’ ground game is averaging 179.5 yards per contest, and Jai’Den Thomas leads the way with 337 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, UNLV is allowing 21.8 points and 364.3 yards per game. Jake Pope leads the UNLV Rebels with 28 tackles, Tre Fulton has 3 sacks, and Quandarius Keyes has 1 interception.
Why the UNLV Rebels will win
- California has lost each of its last 12 October games as a road underdog.
- UNLV has won four of its last five October games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- California has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine October road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- UNLV has covered the spread in each of its last three games against teams from California.
- California has lost the first half in six of its last seven road games in October.
Why the California Golden Bears will win
- UNLV has lost four of its last six October games as a home favorite.
- The road team has won three of UNLV’s last four games.
- UNLV has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six October games at Allegiant Stadium.
- The underdog has covered the spread in six of UNLV’s last seven games at Allegiant Stadium.
- UNLV has lost the first half in four of its last five home games in October.
Total Points Facts
- Each of UNLV’s last six games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of California’s last six games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference have gone UNDER the total points line.
UNLV Rebels Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Jai’Den Thomas is one of only 16 players averaging over 50.0 rushing yards and 20.0 receiving yards per game this season.
California Golden Bears Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Kingston Lopa leads the league in interceptions (5) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- UNLV ranks T14th among FBS teams for sacks this season (11.0).
- UNLV ranks T19th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (3.3).
- California ranks T134th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (100.0).
- California ranks 130th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (22.2).
California vs UNLV Prediction
UNLV has underachieved given the expectations heading into the season, but this is a talented team on both sides of the ball, and maybe a blowout win over Akron flipped the switch. Cal has come up small in two games when stepping up in competition (Clemson / UCLA), and I assume the same will happen in a trip to Vegas. Cal has massive issues in the trenches, as it can’t run the ball or stop it. It’s kind of surprising this line is this soft, as UNLV should have success controlling the line of scrimmage. I’ll lay the points with the Rebels.