Bowling Green vs Miami (OH) Prediction 10/3/2026 Today’s College Football Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Iowa State defensive end Jace Gilbert (55) and cornerback Seth Johnson (3) bring down Bowling Green running back Austyn Dendy (1) during the first quarter on Sept. 19, 2026, at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa.
MATCHUP
Bowling Green Falcons
Miami (OH) Redhawks
Team Records
0-4
2-2
Spread
+12.5 -108
-12.5 -112
Moneyline
+380
-500
Total
Over 42.5 (-115)
Under 42.5 (-105)
Where
Yager Stadium, Oxford, OH
When
Saturday, October 3, 2026
Time
03:30 PM EDT
TV
ESPN+
The Bowling Green Falcons and the Miami Ohio Redhawks meet in week 5 college football action from Yager Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Bowling Green Falcons vs. Miami Ohio Redhawks Prediction.
Bowling Green Falcons Recap
The Bowling Green Falcons come into this game looking to rebound from a 14-6 loss at the hands of USF last time out to sit at 0-4 this season. After this game, the Falcons will head home for a game agaist Sacramento State.
Falcons Looking For First Win
Jay Kastantin has thrown for 565 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 63.7% passing while Austyn Dendy leads Bowling Green in rushing with 174 yards and 1 touchdown so far this season. Nakai Amachree sits behind Dendy on the ground with 101 yards and 0 TDs. Winn Sharp leads the Falcons in receiving with 154 yards and 10 catches along with 1 TD, while Jeremiah Scoby trails with 148 yards and 16 catches. On defense, Dorian Pringle has a team-high 39 tackles while Bowling Green’s defense as a whole has combined for 9 sacks and 2 interceptions so far this season.
Miami Ohio Redhawks Recap
The Miami Ohio Redhawks come into this game looking to add on to their 24-21 win over UConn last time out to sit at 2-2 this season. After this game, Miami Ohio will head on the road for a game against UMass.
Redhawks Looking To Get Back Above .500
David McComb has thrown for 1,121 yards, 7 touchdowns and 1 interception on 63.1% passing while Lazaro Rogers leads Miami (OH) in rushing with 86 yards and 1 touchdown so far this season. Rodney Nelson sits behind Rogers on the ground with 84 yards and 0 TDs. Maleek Huggins leads the RedHawks in receiving with 225 yards and 11 catches along with 1 TD, while Damarion Witten trails with 215 yards and 7 catches. On defense, Malcolm McCain has a team-high 31 tackles while Miami (OH)’s defense as a whole has combined for 7 sacks and 1 interception so far this season.
The favorite has won each of Miami (OH)’s last 21 games at Fred C. Yager Stadium.
Bowling Green has lost each of its last six games in Ohio.
Miami (OH) has covered the spread in each of its last 10 games as a favorite.
Bowling Green has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six road games.
Miami (OH) has won the first half in each of its last eight games against Bowling Green.
Miami (OH) has won the first quarter in six of its last seven games against Bowling Green.
Why the Bowling Green Falcons will win
Bowling Green has won five of its last six October games as an underdog.
Miami (OH) has lost four of its last five games against teams from Ohio.
Bowling Green has covered the spread in six of its last seven games as an underdog in Ohio.
Bowling Green has won the first quarter in five of its last six October games as a road underdog.
Bowling Green has won the first half in 10 of its last 11 road games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
Each of Bowling Green’s last six games in Ohio have gone UNDER the total points line.
Eight of Miami (OH)’s last nine games as a favorite against teams from Ohio have gone UNDER the total points line.
Miami (OH) RedHawks Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 5, Scoop Smith ranks 7th amongst FBS players for kick return yards (218) this season.
Bowling Green Falcons Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 5, Myles Bradley ranks 5th amongst FBS players for sacks (5.5) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Miami (OH) ranks 138th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-9.8).
Miami (OH) ranks 2nd among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (+15.0).
Bowling Green ranks 138th among FBS teams for points per game this season (8.3).
Bowling Green ranks 138th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (232.0).
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Miami Ohio Redhawks Prediction
I’m on the under in this game. The Falcons have been horrendous offensively this season and in MAC conference play, I don’t really expect that to change. That being said, Miami Ohio isn’t normally the type to run away and hide offensively and I think this is one of those spots where Miami Ohio wins and wins comfortably, but with something along the lines of 24-10. Give me the under in this one.
