| MATCHUP | Baylor Bears | Arizona State Sun Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Spread | +3.5 -105 | -3.5 -115 |
| Moneyline | +154 | -185 |
| Total | Over 49.5 (-108) | Under 49.5 (-112) |
| Where | Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ | |
| When | Saturday, October 3, 2026 | |
| Time | 10:30 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN | |
Arizona State Sun Devils Preview
Arizona State has a 2-1 record and are coming off a 24-17 home win against Kansas. They will face Hawai’i and Texas Tech next. Offensively, Arizona State averages 38 points per game, ranking 32nd in the nation, while defensively, they allow 24 points per game, which is 79th. Arizona State averages 426 total yards per game (260.3 passing and 165.7 rushing), while allowing 285.7 total yards per game (124.3 rushing and 161.3 passing).
Cutter Boley leads Arizona State with 736 passing yards with 63.1% completed passes and 9 touchdowns. Kyson Brown leads the team in rushing yards with 227, while Reed Harris has a team-high 19 receptions for 374 receiving yards. Defensively, Owen Long has a team-high 25 total tackles (12 of them solo).
Baylor Bears Preview
Baylor has a 3-1 record and are coming off a 23-13 home win against Colorado. They will face TCU and Kansas next. Offensively, Baylor averages 29.8 points per game, ranking 78th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 13 points per game, which is 16th. Baylor averages 435.8 total yards per game (285 passing and 150.8 rushing), while allowing 306 total yards per game (97 rushing and 209 passing).
Nate Bennett leads Baylor with 567 passing yards with 75% completed passes and 6 touchdowns. Dawson Pendergrass leads the team in rushing yards with 288, while Gavin Freeman has a team-high 35 receptions for 364 receiving yards. Defensively, Travion Barnes has a team-high 26 total tackles (20 of them solo), while Bo Onu leads the team with 3 sacks.
Baylor Bears @ Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Trends: Week 5
Why the Arizona State Sun Devils will win
- The favorite has won each of Arizona State’s last seven games.
- Baylor has lost each of its last three road games against conference opponents.
- Baylor has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four road games against conference opponents.
- The favorite has covered the spread in five of Arizona State’s last six games.
- Arizona State has won the first half in each of its last five games against conference opponents.
Why the Baylor Bears will win
- Baylor has won three of its last four October games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Arizona State has lost each of its last three October games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Arizona State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five home games against conference opponents.
- Baylor has covered the spread in three of its last four games.
- Baylor has won the first quarter in five of its last six October games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Baylor has won the first half in four of its last five October road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Baylor’s last six October games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Arizona State’s last four home games against teams from Texas have gone UNDER the total points line.
Arizona State Sun Devils Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Reed Harris ranks T8th amongst FBS players for receiving touchdowns (5) this season.
Baylor Bears Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Gavin Freeman ranks T1st amongst FBS players for receptions (35) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Arizona State ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
- Arizona State ranks 137th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-9.0).
- Baylor has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
- Baylor ranks T4th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (0.8).
Baylor vs Arizona State Prediction
In this Baylor vs Arizona State Prediction, Arizona State is coming as -4.5 home favorites. Both teams have just one defeat so far this season and are almost perfect against the spread, but Arizona State has won and covered its only game at home, while Baylor’s only defeat has been on the road. Arizona State almost cracks the top-30 of the country offensively to match Baylor’s top-16 defense and have won their only previous meeting last year. Take Arizona State and lay the small number at home.