| MATCHUP | Ball State Cardinals | Bowling Green Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 1-5 | 2-4 |
| Spread | +6.5 -105 | -6.5 -115 |
| Moneyline | +210 | -258 |
| Total | Over 47.5 (-105) | Under 47.5 (-115) |
| Where | Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH | |
| When | Saturday, October 17, 2026 | |
| Time | 12:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
In this article, we will formulate a Ball State vs Bowling Green Prediction for this College Football Week 7 matchup on Saturday, October 17th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.
Bowling Green Falcons Preview
Bowling Green has a 2-4 record and a 2-0 record in the MAC. They are coming off a 38-10 home win against Sacramento State and will face Buffalo and Western Michigan next.
Offensively, Bowling Green averages 15.8 points per game, ranking 132nd in the nation, while defensively, they allow 29.2 points per game, which is 114th. Bowling Green averages 274.7 total yards per game (167.7 passing and 107 rushing), while allowing 375.3 total yards per game (204.5 rushing and 170.8 passing).
Jay Kastantin leads Bowling Green with 986 passing yards with 65.7% completed passes and 5 touchdowns. Austin Dendy leads the team in rushing yards with 271, while Jeremiah Scoby has a team-high 252 receiving yards and 24 receptions. Defensively, Dorian Pringle has a team-high 57 total tackles (29 of them solo), while Myles Bradley leads the team with 7 sacks.
Ball State Cardinals Preview
Ball State has a 1-5 record and a 0-2 record in the MAC. They are coming off a 14-45 road loss against Northwestern and will face Sacramento State and Massachusetts next.
Offensively, Ball State averages 18.3 points per game, ranking 125th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 39 points per game, which is 134th. Ball State averages 308 total yards per game (190.2 passing and 117.8 rushing), while allowing 467.3 total yards per game (218.8 rushing and 248.5 passing).
Keldric Luster leads Ball State with 871 passing yards with 64.4% completed passes and 6 touchdowns. TJ Horton leads the team in rushing yards with 311, while Donovan Hamilton has a team-high 273 receiving yards and 22 receptions. Defensively, Sterling Smith has a team-high 37 total tackles (21 of them solo), while Kaleb Stewart leads the team with 1.5 sacks.
Ball State Cardinals @ Bowling Green Falcons Betting Trends: Week 7
Why the Bowling Green Falcons will win
- Ball State has lost each of its last 14 road games.
- The favorite has won each of Ball State’s last 11 games.
- The home team has covered the spread in six of Ball State’s last seven games.
- Ball State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six road games against conference opponents.
- Ball State has lost the first half in each of its last 12 games as an underdog against teams from Ohio.
- The home team has won the first quarter in each of Ball State’s last eight games.
Why the Ball State Cardinals will win
- Bowling Green has lost five of its last six games as a favorite in Ohio.
- The underdog has won six of Bowling Green’s last eight games at Doyt Perry Stadium.
- The underdog has covered the spread in nine of Bowling Green’s last 10 games at Doyt Perry Stadium.
- Bowling Green has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games as a favorite in Ohio.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of Ball State’s last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of Bowling Green’s last seven games as a favorite in Ohio have gone UNDER the total points line.
Bowling Green Falcons Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 7, Myles Bradley ranks T3rd amongst FBS players for sacks (7.0) this season.
Ball State Cardinals Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 7, TJ Horton leads the Mid-American Conference for yards per carry (7.3) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Bowling Green has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team this season (2).
- Bowling Green ranks 136th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (11.0).
- Ball State has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team this season (4).
- Ball State has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 25+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
Ball State vs Bowling Green Prediction
In this Ball State vs Bowling Green prediction, Bowling Green is coming as -7.5 home favorites. Both teams have been on opposite trajectories lately, as Bowling Green has back-to-back wins after losing their first four games of the season and are 3-0 ATS, while Ball State has lost four straight and has the 5th-worst defense in the entire country for a -20.7 point differential. Bowling Green also dominates this matchup, having won four of its five head-to-head meetings against Ball State and I expect them to do so again today and cover the -7.5 points at home.