| MATCHUP | Alabama Crimson Tide | Mississippi State Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Spread | -6 -105 | +6 -115 |
| Moneyline | -218 | +180 |
| Total | Over 60.5 (-110) | Under 60.5 (-110) |
| Where | Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS | |
| When | Saturday, October 3, 2026 | |
| Time | 12:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | ABC | |
Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview
Mississippi State has a 4-0 record and are coming off a 31-24 home win against Missouri. They will face LSU and Oklahoma next. Offensively, Mississippi State averages 47 points per game, ranking 6th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 28 points per game, which is 93rd. Mississippi State averages 533.3 total yards per game (315.5 passing and 217.8 rushing), while allowing 353.8 total yards per game (104.8 rushing and 249 passing).
Kamario Taylor leads Mississippi State with 1,192 passing yards with 69.2% completed passes and 14 touchdowns. Fluff Bothwell leads the team in rushing yards with 402, while Anthony Evans III has a team-high 28 receptions for 408 receiving yards. Defensively, Jalen Smith has a team-high 28 total tackles (7 of them solo), while Jaray Bledsoe leads the team with 1.5 sacks.
Alabama Crimson Tide Preview
Alabama has a 4-0 record and are coming off a 49-18 home win against South Carolina. They will face Georgia and Tennessee next. Offensively, Alabama averages 48 points per game, ranking 5th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 20.2 points per game, which is 41st. Alabama averages 471.5 total yards per game (283.3 passing and 188.3 rushing), while allowing 315.3 total yards per game (93.8 rushing and 221.5 passing).
Keelon Russell leads Alabama with 1,129 passing yards with 70.9% completed passes and 8 touchdowns. Daniel Hill leads the team in rushing yards with 225, while Ryan Williams has a team-high 17 receptions for 333 receiving yards. Defensively, Caleb Woodson has a team-high 30 total tackles (12 of them solo), while Devan Thompkins leads the team with 3 sacks.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Trends: Week 5
Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win
- Mississippi State has won each of its last four games.
- Alabama has lost three of its last four games against AP-ranked teams.
- Alabama has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven road games as a top-10 AP-ranked team.
- Mississippi State has covered the spread in each of its last four games.
- Mississippi State has won the first quarter in four of its last six games as an underdog against top-15 AP-ranked teams.
- Mississippi State has won the first half in seven of its last eight home games as an AP-ranked team.
Why the Alabama Crimson Tide will win
- Alabama has won each of its last 19 games against teams from Mississippi.
- Mississippi State has lost each of its last 11 games against top-10 AP-ranked teams.
- Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven home games against top-10 AP-ranked teams.
- Alabama has covered the spread in each of its last six games against Mississippi State.
- Alabama has won the first quarter in each of its last six games against Mississippi State.
- Mississippi State has lost the first half in each of its last 11 games against top-10 AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Mississippi State’s last seven home games in October have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Alabama’s last four games have gone OVER the total points line.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Kamario Taylor ranks T1st amongst FBS players for passing touchdowns (14) this season.
Alabama Crimson Tide Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Conor Talty ranks T5th amongst FBS players for made field goals (8) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Mississippi State ranks 4th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (533.3).
- Mississippi State ranks 5th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (109).
- Alabama has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
- Alabama ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction
In this Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction, Alabama is coming as -6 road favorites. Both teams have been undefeated this season and both are 4-0 and 3-1 against the spread. They both have been excellent offensively, sitting on the top-5 of the entire country in points scored, with 95 ppg combined, so I expect a high-scoring affair, especially since MS State has allowed 29 ppg in its last two games. All of Alabama’s three game this season have gone over the total and the previous meeting between those two teams back in 2023 was also a high-scoring one. Take the over 59.5 in this one.