| MATCHUP | Virginia Cavaliers | SMU Mustangs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 15-2 | 13-4 |
| Spread | -1.5 -118 | +1.5 -102 |
| Moneyline | -135 | +114 |
| Total | Over 154.5 (-108) | Under 154.5 (-112) |
| Where | Moody Coliseum (Dallas), Dallas, TX | |
| When | Saturday, January 17, 2026 | |
| Time | 12:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN2 | |
SMU Mustangs Preview
SMU Mustangs have a 13-4 record this season and are tied in the 9th place of the ACC. They have a 11-0 home record and are coming off a 77-76 home win against Virginia Tech. Their previous three games were an 82-75 away loss against Duke, a 74-70 away loss against Clemson and a 97-83 home win against North Carolina.
Offensively, SMU averages 88.4 points per game, while allowing 77 points per game defensively. The Mustangs shoot with 50% from the field and grab 38.6 rebounds per game, while dishing out 17.9 assists per game. They average 3.8 blocks per game and 7.9 steals per game defensively.
Boopie Miller leads SMU in scoring, with an average of 20.8 points per game, while shooting with 47.5% from the field and 89.3% from the free throw line, adding a team-high 7.1 assists. Samet Yigitoglu is the team’s leading rebounder with 8.3 per game.
Virginia Cavaliers Preview
Virginia Cavaliers have a 15-2 record this season and are in the 4th place of the ACC. They have a 3-1 road record and are coming off a 79-70 away win against Louisville. Their previous three games were a 70-55 home win against Stanford, a 84-60 home win against California and a 76-61 away win against NC State.
Offensively, Virginia averages 84.7 points per game, while allowing 67 points per game defensively. The Cavaliers shoot with 48% from the field and grab 42.1 rebounds per game, while dishing out 17.4 assists per game. They average 6.6 blocks per game and 6.7 steals per game defensively.
Thijs De Ridder leads Virginia in scoring, with an average of 16 points per game, while shooting with 54.1% from the field and 64.2% from the free throw line. Johann Grunloh is the team’s leading rebounder with 6.8 per game. Dallin Hall leads the team in assists with 4.1 per game.
Virginia Cavaliers @ SMU Mustangs Betting Trends: January 17, 2026
Why the SMU Mustangs will win
- SMU has won each of its last 11 home games.
- Virginia has lost three of its last four road games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
- SMU has won the first half in six of its last seven games at Moody Coliseum (Dallas).
Why the Virginia Cavaliers will win
- Virginia has won each of its last 11 January games as an AP-ranked team.
- SMU has lost 13 of its last 14 games against AP-ranked opponents.
- Virginia has won the first half in each of its last 11 games.
Total Points Facts
- Ninety-eight of Virginia’s last 99 day games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 153 or fewer points.
- Each of SMU’s last seven day games have produced a total of 157+ points.
Virginia vs SMU Prediction
In this Virginia vs SMU Prediction, Virginia is coming as -1.5 road favorites. Both teams have been excellent this season but Virginia has lost only twice in its 17 games played, while SMU has been undefeated at home and will be playing their 12th home game in 18 games played. Virginia has been red-hot lately, with a 9-1 record in its last 10 games and 4-0 against the spread, while on the other hand, SMU is 1-2 in its last three games and 3-3 against the spread. Virginia also has a top-30 defense in the entire country so I expect them to get the job done on the road. Take Virginia and lay the points.