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Virginia vs Duke Prediction 2/28/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

Feb 24, 2026; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster (1) drives as Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Sir Mohammed (13) defends during the second half at Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Feb 24, 2026; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster (1) drives as Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Sir Mohammed (13) defends during the second half at Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

MATCHUP Virginia Cavaliers Duke Blue Devils
Team Records 25-3 26-2
Where Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
When Saturday, February 28, 2026
Time 12:00 PM EST
TV ESPN
The Virginia Cavaliers and the Duke Blue Devils will meet on Saturday afternoon in an ACC matchup at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina.

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

The Duke Blue Devils enter Saturday’s game with a 26–2 win‑loss record, including a rather impressive 14-1 mark in conference play and an undefeated 13-0 record at home. The Blue Devils have compiled wins over Michigan State, Florida, Lipscomb and the Florida Gators, while losing to North Carolina and the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Earlier this season, in the Duke Blue Devils thrilling 67–66 victory over the Florida Gators, Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer tallied 29 points (10 of 21 shooting from the field), 6 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 steal demonstrating his ability to lead the Blue Devils offense.

The Duke Blue Devils average 83 points (34th in nation) on 49.8 percent shooting from the field (17th in country) and 34.9 percent shooting from three‑point range per game. Defensively, the Blue Devils are allowing opponents 62.9 points per contest which ranks 3rd in the nation.

Freshman guard Cameron Boozer has been a standout contributor for the Duke Blue Devils, averaging 22.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.7 steals and 0.6 blocks per game. Sophomore center Patrick Ngongbka II is averaging 10.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2 assists and 1.2 blocks per contest. Sophomore guard Isaiah Evans provides the Blue Devils with further backcourt stability averaging 14.5 points, 3 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game.

Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview

The Virginia Cavaliers enter Saturday afternoon’s contest with a 25–3 win‑loss record, including a 13–2 mark in conference play and an 8-1 record on the road. Virginia has amassed wins over Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Boston College and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, while dropping recent games to North Carolina and the Virginia Tech Hokies.

More recently, in the Virginia Cavaliers 67–47 win over Pittsburgh three weeks ago, Virginia guard Sam Lewis compiled 15 points (5 of 10 shooting from the field: 4 of 8 from three-point range), 3 rebounds, 1 assist and 1 steal.

The Virginia Cavaliers average 82.3 points (41st in country) on 46.8 percent shooting from the field and 36.3 percent shooting from behind the arc per game. Shifting our attention to the defensive side of the basketball, the Cavaliers are allowing 67.8 points per contest which ranks 29th in the nation.

Forward Thijs De Ridder leads the Cavaliers averaging 16 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. Senior guard Malik Thomas contributes 12.3 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.7 assists per contest. Senior center Ugonna Onyenso provides the Cavaliers with a quality interior presence averaging 6.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game.  

Why the Duke Blue Devils Will Win

• Elite defense. The Duke Blue Devils are allowing opponents 62.9 points per game which ranks 3rd in the country.

• Home court edge. The Blue Devils have compiled an undefeated 13-0 record at home this season.  

• Offensive edge. The Duke Blue Devils average 83 points (34th in nation) on 49.8 percent shooting from the field (17th in country) per game.

• Balanced roster. Boozer, Evans and Ngongba II provide scoring, rebounding, and defense.

Why the Virginia Cavaliers Will Win

• Frontcourt production. Thijs De Ridder averages 16 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.6 assists giving Virginia a reliable interior presence.

• Recent momentum. The Virginia Cavaliers arrive at tomorrow afternoon’s contest on the heels of a nine-game winning streak.

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils Prediction

In my view, Duke’s unbeaten home record, superior offense and elite defense make the Blue Devils the more reliable side in this matchup. Virginia’s defense will slow tempo, but Duke’s ability to score at all three levels and control the glass (led by Cameron Boozer’s 22.7 points and 10.1 rebounds per game) should create separation over 40 minutes of play. With that said, I am backing the Duke Blue Devils to cover the 9.5 points in this game.

Hans Geevers's Pick: Duke -9.5

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